A Colorado Presidential poll out today by Quinnipiac and paid for by New York Times/CBS has Governor Mitt Romney beating President Obama 50%-45% in Colorado.
It's the first major poll to show Romney leading in Colorado by a comfortable margin, and considerably more than the poll's margin of error (2.6%). The lead is also significant because the Quinnipiac poll has a large sample size (1,463 Likely Voters) — more than twice Democrat pollster PPP's sample from their poll released yesterday.
If you're wondering why the Obama campaign is drudging up months-old manufactured outrage today in form of the Sandra Fluke stunt, then this poll's results should make you wonder no more.
Here are some results that are certainly causing heartburn at Obama HQ in Chicago:
- 53% Disapprove of Obama's job performance / 44% approve
- 42% Think the economy is getting worse / 26% think it's improving
- 51% Think Romney would be better on economy / 41% think Obama would
- 47% Have favorable opinion of Romney / 42% Unfavorable
But before our conservative readers get their hopes up too high, there are a few caveats to the poll.
Most important is that we tend to discount any poll that shows Romney or Obama leading by any sort of significant margin. The race in Colorado is tight and we highly doubt any poll that claims otherwise.
Secondly, it appears to oversample Republicans and older voters slightly.
The poll uses a 32R / 27D / 40 U/Other sample, which seems slightly more favorable for Republicans than Election Day is likely to be.
The sample also contains a larger amount of voters over 45 than is realistic — though the poll found Romney is leading with voters over 35, meaning a properly weighted sample would probably still find Romney in the lead, though by less.
Liberals have pushed back on the fact that Hispanic voters comprised only 9% of the sample, but if you look at the Census figures for Hispanic voting, they represent usually about an 8% share of the Colorado electorate each cycle.
Overall, what this poll tells us is that Obama and his Super PAC's millions of dollars worth of ads are not effectively tarring Romney as the former Massachusetts Governor has a (+5) favorable rating in the state, compared to a (-11) negative ranking for Obama’s job performance.
But mostly it tells us what we already know — the race is close. It's going to take the full-on effort from every conservative in the state to make Obama a one-term proposition.