The Rothenberg Political Report, one of the most respected handicapping outlets in the land, has downgraded Congressman Ed Perlmutter’s chances of victory, moving the race from a “Safe Democrat” seat to “Democrat favored.”
National prognosticators are generally loathe to see a candidate as imperiled when he won his last election by 11 points like Perlmutter did in 2010, otherwise we expect Perlmutter’s status might be closer to Tossup.
Colorado 7 (Perlmutter, D). Move to Democrat Favored. Republicans have been bullish on this race for a while, especially given Joe Coors’s, of the famous beer family, willingness to spend his own cash. Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter should be fine, especially with Democratic turnout in the presidential race, but the House Majority PAC seemed worried enough to jump in to blunt the Coors ads. Perlmutter is still favored, but this is no longer a sure-thing for the Democrat.
We think Rothenberg is a little behind the eight ball on this race as “Democrat favored” seats don’t generally see $500,000 ad buys attacking the Republican challenger two months out, as is the case with Nancy Pelosi’s House Majority PAC attacking Joe Coors. Nor do they generally have polls showing the Republican challenger up 9 points, even if that poll was conducted by the Coors campaign.
Despite Colorado Pols’ pathetic spin that Democrats are hoping the Nancy Pelosi Super PAC attack ad would “relegate [this race] to sideshow status” it’s not likely to become easy for Perlmutter at any point. Joe Coors is matching the DCCC and Perlmutter punch for punch on the airwaves, giving no reason to think that this one will be “put away” for the Democrats anytime soon.
As Perlmutter is an incumbent with a proven track record of winning tough races, he is likely to be seen as the favored candidate up until Election Day. That is, until Perlmutter has to pick up the phone to concede the race to his longtime neighbor, Joe.