UPGRADED: Coors vs. Perlmutter Leaning More Republican

It’s bad news for Rep. Ed Perlmutter – both the Cook Political Report and Rothenberg have “upgraded” Colorado’s CD-07 race to “lean Democratic” instead of “likely Democratic”.  Here is what the Rothenberg Political Report had to say:

“Republican Joe Coors has spent over $1 million of his own money on this contest to try to oust Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter after the suburban Denver district got slightly more favorable to the GOP. But it still went 58 percent for Obama and 50 percent for Kerry, and so it’s always been a difficult lift for Coors. Democrats never really saw this one in danger, but an upset no longer seems unimaginable.” (the Peak emphasis)

This Congressional seat is one of the most competitive in the country.  In 2002, the first year Colorado’s Seventh Congressional District was granted to Colorado, Republican Bob Beauprez won the seat by just 121 votes.  This election’s “Romney Bump” in Colorado is proving to foster a similar environment to 2002, and frankly this is the strongest Colorado’s top of the ticket has looked since Beauprez’s victory in 2002.

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LOOK-A-LIKE, PART THREE: 7 Colorado Legislators & Their Celebrity Doppelgängers

With the election only a day away, and stress levels of those politically engaged reaching near nervous breakdown levels, we thought we’d roll out the last in our Colorado legislator Look-a-Like series.

We also felt the need to publish this today as by tomorrow some of these fine folks might not be returning to the Gold Dome come January (here’s looking at you, Evie Hudak).

Check out our previous installments of “9 Colorado Legislators Who Resemble Stars Of The Screen” and “8 Colorado Legislators Who Look Like Muppets And Cartoons.”

Here are 7 Colorado legislators and their celebrity Doppelgängers:

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NOVEMBER 5: GOP Retains Lead In Early Balloting, Extent Unclear

UPDATE: Sources are telling Colorado Peak Politics that approximately 10,000 ballots received over the weekend in GOP-heavy Douglas County were not included in today’s SOS update.

Colorado Republicans held onto at least a two-point lead in ballots returned, according to Secretary of State records released this morning. It’s at least a two-point lead as major GOP counties like Douglas and Mesa didn’t process ballots over the weekend, while liberal hotbeds like Denver and Boulder did.

With that caveat noted, here are the ballot figures for those ballots returned and processed as of the morning of November 5:

Total Votes Cast: 1,707,805

R – 624,788 (36.6%)

D – 590,417 (34.5%)

U – 474,437 (27.8%)

Republicans are leading Democrats in the three biggest swing counties of Colorado. In Arapahoe they are up 1,274, up 6,487 in JeffCo and 7,409 in Larimer.

Check out the full county-by-county breakdown of ballot returns here.

 

THRILL IS GONE: Top Ten Student Excuses for Missing Obama’s CU Rally

The big news coming out of Obama’s rally at the University of Colorado isn’t the throngs of superfans, but the utter lack of enthusiasm for the President’s 72nd (or is it 73rd?) visit to CU in a last ditch effort to rally the troops for the Get Out the Vote efforts leading into Tuesday’s big election.

Video from the CU Obama campaign event shows that officials blocked off hundreds of seats across from the stage (and the cameras), presumably to make the rally look more packed than it actually was.

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TREADING WATER: Last Jobs Report Shows Economy at Standstill, Women Suffering

The last jobs report before the election on Tuesday showed that the economy is simply treading water.  While some celebrated the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the reaction reflects the low standards to which Americans have become accustomed under President Obama’s regime.

Despite the spin the Obama campaign is trying to insert into the media, the real number impacting Americans is the “Persons not in the labor force”, which the Peak has covered extensively.  This statistic shows the number of people who have given up looking for work and simply left the workforce.  Or, in the words of Obama, have given up “hope” – this does not embody the American Dream.

When we compare the numbers from October 2011 and October 2012, its evident that Americans are still suffering under this regime.  In total, our economy has seen a total of 2,023,000 depart the workforce over the past year.  That number is comprised of 412,000 men and, sadly, 1,611,000 women.  Let’s be very clear.  This administration has not been favorable to women’s financial well-being.

A few of the other stats:

  • The unemployment number rose to 7.9%
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the economy added 171,000 jobs, but that the number of unemployed grew by 170,000, roughly the same amount
  • The number of unemployed remained at 12.3 million

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NOVEMBER 2: Republicans Hold Onto Early Balloting Lead, Independents Continue To Grow

Ballot return figures released by the Secretary of State this morning show Republicans holding onto their early voting lead, though the gap is shrinking. The GOP now leads Democrats in ballots returned by 2.6%. Independents continue to grow their share of the early vote, now up to 26.7% of the electorate.

Total ballots cast as of November 2: 1,462,163

R – 547,150 (37.4%)

D – 509,091 (34.8%)

U – 390,875 (26.7%)

The full county-by-county breakdown based on party registration is available here.

In the three major swing counties of Colorado, Republicans continue to hold a steady and significant lead. In Jefferson County, home to numerous competitive legislative races and the hard-fought 7th Congressional District, Republicans retain a lead of 6,616. In Larimer County their lead is 6,356, while in Arapahoe it’s 1,933.

Recent polling in Colorado has a conflicted view of the race, with Rasmussen showing Romney up three and CNN showing Obama up two.

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Check out previous ballot return reports from Nov. 1, Oct. 31, Oct. 30, Oct. 29, Oct. 26, Oct. 25, Oct. 24, and Oct. 23.

 

HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN: Obama Enthusiasm Lacking at Liberal Hotbed CU

Photo credit: University of Colorado

President Obama might be in trouble for Tuesday’s election.  University of Colorado, Boulder, should be the heart of his campaign here in Colorado, and yet, the enthusiasm at CU for President Obama appears to have waned.

A Daily Camera article published earlier this week seems to have unwittingly identified this growing trend.  A few of the quotes from the once-thought rabid Obama supporters:

  • Nina Harris, freshman at CU: “I am curious why he’s coming to Boulder.  Boulder’s a pretty liberal place, and it’s going to vote for him regardless. But I’m still happy he’s coming.”
  • Marlee Glasgow, junior at CU:  “Both times I waited in line for tickets, then waited in line to see him, then he was late both times. It was a lot of waiting.”
  • Craig Darby: “He’s clearly preaching to the choir [in Boulder]. As often as he’s come here, yes, I think it’s a little odd.”

Another sign that enthusiasm for Obama is fading was an observation offered by the Daily Camera: “People camped out in the wee hours of the morning when Obama visited in April and September, but lines started forming Tuesday only minutes before tickets became available.”

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GREEN-EYED MONSTER: Colorado Women’s Alliance Efficacy Drives Liberals to Lunacy

That women will determine the outcome of the 2012 election is not news; it’s been reported for months.  But, here’s what’s news: women aren’t falling for the left’s bald-faced lies and scare tactics this year. The sheer frustration that liberals – particularly liberal women – must feel as they conjure “scarier and scarier” scenarios meant to bully women into voting for the candidate that Democrats have selected for women must be intense.

That must be why Democratic State Senator Morgan Carroll, who represents Aurora, nearly lost her mind when commenting on a ColoradoPols story making fun of a blog post by Joy Overbeck on My Colorado View. In the post, Overbeck contrasts President Obama, the undependable guy that all women have dated at one time or another, to Mitt Romney, the “nice guy”.  Overbeck also includes a “mocked-up” picture of President Obama wearing a men’s sleeveless ribbed undershirt, or a “wife beater” as ColoradoPols so delicately called it.  Here is Senator Carroll’s odd response:

“Not only do I worry about a group that has really never done anything for women before claiming to be a women’s organization an really being a GOP partisan front organization, but to me this makes a mockery of domestic violence and cycles of actual abuse for political sport and tries to imply that Obama is a “wife beater”.

Surely Senator Carroll knows that wearing an article of clothing does not cause one to beat one’s wife?  Conversely, men who wear sleeveless ribbed undershirts are no more likely to commit acts of domestic violence than, say, men who wear argyle socks.  She does know this…right?  Or, did she just inadvertently reveal that she buys into negative stereotypes of men based on their clothing?

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ECONOMIC DATA: Obama Probably Wishes This Wouldn’t Have Come Out

The Obama campaign must have been secretly relieved when rumors surfaced that Sandy might delay the release some of the employment numbers.  But, the delay seems to have been just a rumor as a bevy of economic data was released today.

The number of planned layoffs by U.S. firms jumped 41.1 percent in October to the highest level in five months, according to a report by Challenger, Gray, and Christmas. continue…

 

TIGHT RACE: Two New Colorado Polls Show Presidential Race Virtually Tied

Two new polls on Colorado today have the race within the margin of error, with one showing Romney leading by three and the other with Obama up by two.

A Rasmussen poll, where only the top-line horse race figure has been released so far, has Romney winning Colorado 50%-47%. The survey was conducted entirely on Monday night.

On the flip side is a CNN poll released this afternoon showing Obama taking Colorado 50%-48%, though Obama’s lead drops to one point — 48%-47% – when they include Gary Johnson, who is on the ballot in Colorado. The CNN poll was conducted October 26-31 with a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

Current turnout based on ballots returned by today shows Republicans with a steady three-point lead over Democrats, based on the party registration of those voters.

To quote Dan Rather from 2004: “This race is hotter than a Times Square Rolex.”

UPDATE: The CNN sample appears to be badly out of whack with reality.

CNN Sample: 31R | 33D | 35U

Turnout so far in Colorado: 37.8R | 35D | 26.2U

 
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