CHICKEN OR EGG: Eight Charts Comparing Primary Fundraising to Votes

Published on June 28, 2012 by

Everyone always complains about money in politics, but how much influence does it have?  Is fundraising indicative of the popularity of the candidate or does it really make or break elections?  Below are eight charts looking at the relationship between fundraising and votes last night.  You be the judge.  Note: the names in italics are the last night's winners.

Congressional District 2: Kevin Lundberg vs. Eric Weissmann

Weissmann found that name recognition accounts for a lot – about $130,000 worth.  Weissmann raised nearly $200,000 to Lundberg's nearly $70,000 – and still came up a penny short.  Both sides campaigned hard, and it showed – relatively-unknown candidate Eric Weissman lost last night by just about 2,500 votes. 


CD5: Rep. Doug Lamborn vs. Robert Blaha

Like CD2, Robert Blaha found that name recognition counts for a lot.  Blaha loaned his campaign $722,000 and doubled Lamborn's haul, but still found himself shut out of the race by about 15,000 votes.

CU Regent: Dr. Brian Davidson vs. Matt Arnold

Davidson raised three times as much as Arnold did, and garnered about 50% more votes than Arnold.

HD19: Rep. Marsha Looper vs. Majority Leader Amy Stephens

This tough race pitted two of the Republican Party's gutsiest gals against one another (Thanks, Super Mario).  Stephens bested Looper on both fundraising and votes – even with Looper's $40,000+ in self funding.

SD8: Randy Baumgardner vs. Jean White

White raised twice as much as Baumgardner, but came up about 2,000 votes short.  Neither her "truth" nor her money could push her to the next round.

SD10: Rep. Larry Liston vs. Owen Hill

Despite the pile of cash Liston raised, he was bested by Owen Hill.  Hill super-fan Sen. Greg Brophy tweeted out glowing reviews last night, calling the winner "the future of El Paso Co GOP and CO GOP". 

SD23: Glenn Vaad vs. Vicki Marble

Newcomer Vicki Marble knocked Vaad out of the running by 1,500 votes last night, even after outraising her by $10,000.

HD41: Jovan Melton vs. Terry Todd

Looks like Wisconsinites aren't the only folks tired of Democrats' special interest money – some Dems appear to be done with it as well.  Melton was endorsed by former Senator Ken Gordon's CleanSlateNow group, which offers candidates who don't take special interest money a hand.  Both Democratic insiders Joe Miklosi and Sal Pace endorsed Todd – looks like their judgment was off. Again.

 

JD18: George Brauchler vs. Leslie Hansen

These two candidates proved they’re up for the job with this tough race. Congratulations to George Brauchler for earning those extra 1,500 votes.&nbsp

 

 

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CLOSING THE GAP? Blaha Releases New Magellan Poll Showing Tightening Race With Congressman Lamborn

Published on April 13, 2012 by

It looks like the serious chunks of change that CD5 challenger Robert Blaha has been spending are paying off. Today the Blaha for Congress campaign released a poll showing Blaha within 5 points of incumbent Congressman Doug Lamborn, up from a 31-point Lamborn lead back in February.

Both polls were conducted by Louisville, CO-based Magellan Strategies and paid for by the Blaha campaign. 

Even with the caveat that Blaha paid for the polls, the results are still impressive. 

We're guessing the multiple rounds of TV spots by the Blaha campaign have significantly upped his name ID among voters, representing a large chunk of that poll uptick. 

Lamborn hasn't been up on TV since Blaha announced, leaving the airwaves alone to Blaha to bludgeon him. 

But Lamborn is no stranger to primary challengers as an incumbent Congressman. He fended off a serious challenge in 2008 and won his seat after a multi-candidate primary in 2006.

Lamborn is also consistently ranked as one of the most conservative members of Congress, something highly valued by voters in the extremely conservative 5th Congressional district. 

The advantage of incumbency is useful to Lamborn in more than just his voting record, including the ability to use taxpayer funds to send out "franked" mail to constituents. Blaha recently filed a formal complaint against Lamborn for his use of franking, though it's unlikely to go anywhere since a Franking Commission formally approved all of Lamborn’s mailers before they were sent.

If we had to handicap this race right now, we think the poll above is a good indicator, even if it likely overplays the gains Blaha has made. Lamborn will be tough to knock off, but Blaha certainly seems like he will put up a strong challenge. 


 

IS IT OVER TODAY? Romney Could Unofficially End Primary With Three State Sweep

Published on April 3, 2012 by

With the possibility that Mitt Romney could sweep the GOP primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland and DC today, it is looking increasingly likely that today could mark the unofficial end to the race.

With a three race win, Romney will put the nomination fully out of Rick Santorum's reach, as Santorum would have to win 75% of all remaining delegates, a virtually impossible task. 

As you may have noticed, we haven't been covering the GOP primary with the same fervor we did a few months ago. Activists rarely even talk about the race anymore. We've all tired of it. 

In fact, nothing seems to have changed since Colorado. Santorum's victory at the precinct caucuses here seems, in retrospect, to have been more of a speed bump on Romney's ride to the nomination, than an actual game changing moment. 

In addition to the recent endorsements of Romney by conservative heartthrobs Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio, the delegate math after today just doesn't add up for anyone other than Romney. 

Heck, even the timid Republican National Committee, whose been careful to not alienate any part of the party's base during the primary, is calling an unofficial end to the primary. Starting soon, the RNC will begin raising general election cash with the Romney campaign.

The other campaigns have been offered the chance to co-fundraise with the RNC, but only the Romney camp has taken the offer. 

That's because everyone, including the other candidates, knows this race is over. It may go on for a few more weeks or months, but after today there just doesn't seem to be any path for anyone but Romney to the nomination. 

If Romney does take all three contests tonight it would be a fitting unofficial end. The last time a candidate swept three races in a night it was Rick Santorum elongating the race with wins in MO, CO and MN. 

Tonight, Romney could cut this race short with wins in MD, WI and DC.

(Photo Credit: The Colorado Observer)


 

PRIMARY CONTENDER: Blaha For Congress Launches Latest TV Ad

Published on March 5, 2012 by

A perk of being able to self-fund your campaign to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars is you can get up on TV early and often with slickly-cut spots. Case in point today: Robert Blaha, who is running in a primary against incumbent Congressman Doug Lamborn in CO Springs-based CD5. Today Blaha released, what appears from his website, to be his fourth TV ad in the primary. Considering the primary is nearly four months away that’s a ton of exposure so early on.

Kurtis Lee of The Denver Post reports this latest flight cost $75,000.

Check it out here:


This ad highlights what is the central challenge to Blaha's campaign, namely that his opponent's voting record matches up with the district. Blaha doesn’t even mention Lamborn in the spot, nor any of his votes.

Blaha has decided to run his campaign against what he calls Lamborn's lack of leadership in Washington, rather than his voting record. It would be impossible to run to the right of a Congressman who last week received another 100% rating from the American Conservative Union (ACU), one of only 14 members of Congress to receive the perfect score. 

Or as Dick Wadhams told Kurtis Lee: "A cold, hard political reality is that Lamborn's a proven conservative, and has proven it time and again," Wadhams said. "I'm not sure what (Blaha's) winning formula is."

The question around Blaha's candidacy is whether CD5 primary voters will see a reason to toss Lamborn. Lamborn is not known for being particularly outspoken or influential in Washington. The biggest national splash he has made in the last year was for skipping the State of the Union address and indirectly referring to Obama as a "tar baby." Not exactly positive PR.

While the mainstream press poked Lamborn for both moves, it is entirely possible that smacking Obama may well have helped him in the very conservative 5th CD. We know this much about El Paso County: there, Obama is persona non grata, so Lamborn’s sharp sticks may actually reinforce his conservative calling card.

Lamborn has also used his role as a subcommittee chairman to speak out on energy issues, successfully getting his oil shale bill through the House. Blaha’s attack that Lamborn isn’t the most outspoken conservative in Washington no doubt has merit, but there are aspects of Lamborn’s record that will make it a harder sell than Blaha expects.

With money like Blaha's, the voters will certainly know who he is and hear his campaign message.

But Lamborn will be tough to beat, as he has patched up some old conflicts and is not shy to do what it takes to win.

Whether Blaha’s message resonates we'll see. Lamborn has successfully dispatched primary contenders before, but never ones with the resources of Blaha.


 

Primary Challenger to Laura Bradford Emerges

Published on March 1, 2012 by

Palisade vineyard owner and Republican John “Rusty” Price will challenge incumbent Laura Bradford (R-Collbran) for the Colorado House District 54 seat this election year. Price filed with the Colorado Secretary of State’s office this morning, making official a run that has been the subject of rumor since Price resigned as Chairman of the HD 54 Board of Directors last Thursday.

Speculation over a potential primary challenge to Rep. Bradford has been present since her controversial traffic stop in Denver a month ago for suspected DUI.  The incident, which resulted in an apology to Rep. Bradford from the Denver Police for initially suggesting, erroneously, that she had used an obscure Constitutional provision to escape charges, and a dismissal by a House Ethics Committee of any charges of wrong-doing, has nonetheless left the impression on many that she is a weakened candidate, and vulnerable to a primary in this heavily Republican district.

Mr. Price, who owns Valley Vista Vineyards in Palisade, said in an interview that he has been a registered Republican for decades, and active in the local tea party movement for several years, saying that he felt it “showed strength for the right reasons, and at the right time.” He declined to comment on how much of an influence the recent controversy surrounding Rep. Bradford had on his decision to run.

Mr. Price will formally announce his candidacy this evening before the monthly meeting of the Western Slope Conservative Alliance, at 6:30 pm, in the Grand Junction City Hall Auditorium, 250 N 5th Street. Former Congressman Tom Tancredo will be later speaking at the event, which brings together an average of 200 local conservative activists once a month to hear various speakers and announcements pertaining to the conservative movement.

Rep. Bradford, who in addition to serving as the HD 54 representative in the General Assembly, also serves as Chair of the House Local Government Committee, could not be reached for comment.

Rep. Bradford and Mr. Price are currently the only two active candidates to have filed with the Secretary of State’s office for the seat.

 
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