Denver-area TV buys have shifted in Romney’s favor.
CU journalism students (CU News Corp), guided by CU-Boulder journalism instructor Sandra Fish and Laura Frank, executive director of the I-News Network, have been examining ad contracts for the four Denver TV stations to see who’s buying political ads. I added Obama-side and Romney-side spending to see who was leading in the spending wars.
- For TV ad purchases before 9/12, Obama spent 61.5% of the presidential ad spending (including his probable PAC-type supporters).
- From 9/12 through 9/26, Romney spent 70% of the ad spending (including, again, his probably PAC-type supporters).
Sandra Fish clarified that CU News Corp reports spending dates by when the station has a contract, even though the actual ad may air at a later date.
This spending shift validates my prediction that Obama’s TV dominance was not durable. See my ColoradoPeakPolitics post.
What this means is that Romney should begin to move up in the polls here in Colorado. The shift will not be as stark as the 61% for Obama to 70% for Romney in ad purchases, due to pre-buys, but eventually the fact that Obama had spent much of his campaign cash before Labor Day (and voters don’t recall those ads) should mean Romney has the advantage as Election Day nears.
TV buys do influence polls. See the report, including summary, here. Dominating the television air waves appears to shift the polls 6% to the side that’s dominating. And TV ads lose their influence with voters within two weeks.


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