NOVEMBER 2: Republicans Hold Onto Early Balloting Lead, Independents Continue To Grow

Published on November 2, 2012 by

Ballot return figures released by the Secretary of State this morning show Republicans holding onto their early voting lead, though the gap is shrinking. The GOP now leads Democrats in ballots returned by 2.6%. Independents continue to grow their share of the early vote, now up to 26.7% of the electorate.

Total ballots cast as of November 2: 1,462,163

R – 547,150 (37.4%)

D – 509,091 (34.8%)

U – 390,875 (26.7%)

The full county-by-county breakdown based on party registration is available here.

In the three major swing counties of Colorado, Republicans continue to hold a steady and significant lead. In Jefferson County, home to numerous competitive legislative races and the hard-fought 7th Congressional District, Republicans retain a lead of 6,616. In Larimer County their lead is 6,356, while in Arapahoe it’s 1,933.

Recent polling in Colorado has a conflicted view of the race, with Rasmussen showing Romney up three and CNN showing Obama up two.

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Check out previous ballot return reports from Nov. 1, Oct. 31, Oct. 30, Oct. 29, Oct. 26, Oct. 25, Oct. 24, and Oct. 23.

 

TIGHT RACE: Two New Colorado Polls Show Presidential Race Virtually Tied

Published on November 1, 2012 by

Two new polls on Colorado today have the race within the margin of error, with one showing Romney leading by three and the other with Obama up by two.

A Rasmussen poll, where only the top-line horse race figure has been released so far, has Romney winning Colorado 50%-47%. The survey was conducted entirely on Monday night.

On the flip side is a CNN poll released this afternoon showing Obama taking Colorado 50%-48%, though Obama’s lead drops to one point — 48%-47% – when they include Gary Johnson, who is on the ballot in Colorado. The CNN poll was conducted October 26-31 with a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

Current turnout based on ballots returned by today shows Republicans with a steady three-point lead over Democrats, based on the party registration of those voters.

To quote Dan Rather from 2004: “This race is hotter than a Times Square Rolex.”

UPDATE: The CNN sample appears to be badly out of whack with reality.

CNN Sample: 31R | 33D | 35U

Turnout so far in Colorado: 37.8R | 35D | 26.2U

 

NOVEMBER 1: Colorado Republicans Continue To Lead Ballot Returns, Independents Start Showing Up

Published on November 1, 2012 by

The Secretary of State has released the ballot returns through November 1, showing Republicans retaining a nearly three-point lead and independent voters starting to cast their votes at slightly higher rates.

Total ballots cast: 1,305,885

R – 493,457 (37.8%)

D – 457,337 (35.0%)

U – 341,920 (26.2%)

Five days out and it doesn’t appear the vaunted Obama ground game is coming to save the President in Colorado. The three-point lead in early balloting has held pretty steady throughout every ballot return report released.

Check out the full county-by-county breakdown of who has returned their ballot based on their political party registration here.

Republicans retain a healthy lead in all three major swing counties, with them up 6,437 in Jefferson County, 5,711 in Larimer County and 2,354 in Arapahoe County.

The latest Rasmussen poll on Colorado, released today (more on that later), has Romney up 50%-47% based on polling done Monday.

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For those interested in the trends, check out previous ballot return reports from Oct. 31, Oct. 30, Oct. 29, Oct. 26, Oct. 25, Oct. 24 and Oct. 23.

 

COLORADO RASMUSSEN POLL: Romney 50 – Obama 46, Five Point Shift Towards Romney

Published on October 22, 2012 by

Another Colorado poll, another sign Romney’s post-Denver debate momentum continues. Rasmussen is out with a poll today showing Romney up 50-46 over Obama, marking a five-point shift in Romney’s direction from Rasmussen’s last Colorado poll on October 7.

The October 7 Rasmussen poll had Obama winning 49-48.

Romney’s lead in today’s Rasmussen poll comes from a 12-point lead among male voters, while Obama clings to a thin 3-point lead among female voters. There’s a gender gap, to be sure, but not the kind the press and liberals have been talking about for the last couple of months.

The sample in today’s Rasmussen poll is 36D/40R/23U, significantly different from the Oct. 7 Rasmussen poll with a 30D/35R/30U sample.

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source, as of this morning approximately 36,000 Republicans had returned their ballots to 29,000 Democrats and 20,000 Unaffiliateds. It’s early, and hard to draw too many conclusions from, but that turnout seems to suggest today’s Rasmussen sample could be correct.

As we’ve been saying for months, we expect the Colorado electorate on Nov. 6 to have more Republicans than Democrats, despite left-wing pollster PPP’s suggestion that Democrats will magically turnout in higher numbers than they ever have in history.

Regardless of the perennial party ID fight, no matter how you slice it, Romney’s momentum in Colorado is real and continuing. Will it be enough to push him over the top? We’ll know in a little more than two weeks.

 

MEDIA POLLING #FAIL: PPP Puts Out Bogus Poll, Media Bites Without Reading Sample

Published on June 19, 2012 by

Polling is about determining a population's belief by asking a representative sample, so polls that don't accurately represent the population they are polling shouldn't be counted as accurate representations of that population's sentiment. Case in point (again): PPP's latest poll of Colorado.

The PPP poll out today claims Obama is beating Romney in Colorado, 49-42, but that's when they oversample Democrats by 7.3%, undersample Republicans by 2% and undersample unaffiliateds by 4.4% compared to the active voter registration totals in Colorado as of June 1. 

Every other recent poll — Rasmussen, Purple Strategies, NBCNews/Marist — has had the race tied or within the margin of error. Yet somehow, after weeks of bad press, and Colorado's unemployment rising in April and May, Obama is up 7 in the PPP poll?

The Democrat flacks over at PPP must also have missed veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart's focus group in Colorado last week where Obama was dubbed a "slick salesman, but his words didn't match his actions" by a group of undecided voters, 10 of 12 whom voted for Obama in 2008. 

And for some godforsaken reason the media is reporting the poll without any mention of the serious sampling flaws. 

For example, Alicia Caldwell at The Denver Post blindly wrote up the results without bothering to mention the fact that it polled a Colorado electorate that doesn't exist. Do they teach statistics in J-School? Did she not scroll down her own blog to read Curtis Hubbard's coverage of the brutal Denver focus group? Didn't that make her wonder about such a wildly divergent result in the PPP poll versus the focus group?

Even the normally solid reporter at Politico, Alexander Burns, reports the poll without even mentioning the enormous statistical problem it has. 

It may be an easy post and click generator to write up poll results, but reporters should at least know what they're reporting before they click the publish button. 


 

ECONOMIC INDICATOR: Lower Gas Prices Cold Comfort To Colorado Families

Published on June 8, 2012 by

As this year's election is set to be decided in large part by the state of the economy, we at Colorado Peak Politics have decided to start tracking key economic indicators to give our readers a more holistic picture than just monthly unemployment numbers.  

Today, Bloomberg released its weekly Consumer Comfort Index, which noted that “consumer confidence rose last week for the third straight time as the drop in fuel costs helped shore up Americans’ finances and improved the buying climate.”  

The Index measures Americans’ view of the economy on three variables: "the state of the economy, personal finances and whether it’s a good time to buy needed goods or services.”  

Ironically enough, the price of gas has gone down due to the softening economy and the related weakened demand for gas (not anything the administration has done), which is not exactly accounted for in the Index.

But, this is all relative — let’s remember where we are. According to ColoradoGasPrices.com, the cheapest gas found in the last 24 hours has been $3.30 in Pueblo, and the most expensive gas has been found at a Conoco station in Frisco, which lists regular unleaded gas at $4.47 per gallon.  

When President Obama took office, gas was under $2/gallon in Colorado. No wonder the Purple Poll on Colorado found 57% think we're on the wrong track.  

While consumer confidence may be rising nationally, the Rasmussen Reports poll on Colorado released today found that 44% of respondents said their finances were getting worse, compared to only 25% who reported improvement. 

(Gas Chart via ColoradoGasPrices.com)


 
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