HICK 2016 ON THE SKIDS: PPP Polling Finds Only 21% Want Him To Run For President

It’s been a rough few months for Governor Hickenlooper politically. Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling adds to that portrait of political pain today with the second part of their statewide survey, which shows a scant 21% of voters would like to see Hickenlooper run for president.

An overwhelming 65% of Coloradans don’t want Hick to run.

The first part of their survey found Hick’s negatives skyrocketing, with an increase of 18 points in his disapproval rating.

With most other states in the union shying away from gun control, and the damage to his brand and polling numbers, we’re betting Governor Hickenlooper is having second thoughts about doing New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s bidding.

A few other noteworthy bits from the poll:

  • Secretary of State Gessler, despite being barraged with attacks by Democrats for most of the last two years, is beating declared Democratic candidate for SOS, Ken Gordon, 42%-38%. No wonder the Colorado Democratic Party backed off their threat of a recall campaign against Gessler.
  • President Barack Obama’s numbers are falling. After winning Colorado by 5 points in 2012, his approval rating is now under water at 48% approval to 50% disapproval. This could negatively impact Democrats in 2014 if it continues to sink.
  • Independents oppose gun control by a 49%-46% margin. We’re betting that margin is far higher among independents who count guns as an issue that will change their vote.

Our buddies over at Colorado Pols laughingly assert that Hickenlooper is facing a backlash from the left over his unqualified support for oil and gas drilling. Unfortunately, we know they’re pushing that line only because Pols‘ co-founder Jason Bane is employed in communications by the environmental group, Western Resource Advocates. Despite the enviros best attempts to muddy up Hick for his love of fracking, a whopping 94% of self-described “very liberal” voters approve of Hick’s job performance.

Great work, Green Team.

Hick’s stock is definitely falling, but it ain’t among those on the far left. He’s seeping support from the all-important middle.


NOVEMBER 2: Republicans Hold Onto Early Balloting Lead, Independents Continue To Grow

Ballot return figures released by the Secretary of State this morning show Republicans holding onto their early voting lead, though the gap is shrinking. The GOP now leads Democrats in ballots returned by 2.6%. Independents continue to grow their share of the early vote, now up to 26.7% of the electorate.

Total ballots cast as of November 2: 1,462,163

R – 547,150 (37.4%)

D – 509,091 (34.8%)

U – 390,875 (26.7%)

The full county-by-county breakdown based on party registration is available here.

In the three major swing counties of Colorado, Republicans continue to hold a steady and significant lead. In Jefferson County, home to numerous competitive legislative races and the hard-fought 7th Congressional District, Republicans retain a lead of 6,616. In Larimer County their lead is 6,356, while in Arapahoe it’s 1,933.

Recent polling in Colorado has a conflicted view of the race, with Rasmussen showing Romney up three and CNN showing Obama up two.


Check out previous ballot return reports from Nov. 1, Oct. 31, Oct. 30, Oct. 29, Oct. 26, Oct. 25, Oct. 24, and Oct. 23.


TIGHT RACE: Two New Colorado Polls Show Presidential Race Virtually Tied

Two new polls on Colorado today have the race within the margin of error, with one showing Romney leading by three and the other with Obama up by two.

A Rasmussen poll, where only the top-line horse race figure has been released so far, has Romney winning Colorado 50%-47%. The survey was conducted entirely on Monday night.

On the flip side is a CNN poll released this afternoon showing Obama taking Colorado 50%-48%, though Obama’s lead drops to one point — 48%-47% – when they include Gary Johnson, who is on the ballot in Colorado. The CNN poll was conducted October 26-31 with a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

Current turnout based on ballots returned by today shows Republicans with a steady three-point lead over Democrats, based on the party registration of those voters.

To quote Dan Rather from 2004: “This race is hotter than a Times Square Rolex.”

UPDATE: The CNN sample appears to be badly out of whack with reality.

CNN Sample: 31R | 33D | 35U

Turnout so far in Colorado: 37.8R | 35D | 26.2U


OCTOBER 30: Republicans Hold Onto 3 Point Lead, 5 Point Shift From 2008

The Secretary of State has released the latest ballot returns as of this morning, October 30. Republicans are holding onto a three-point lead, marking a five point shift from Oct. 30, 2008.

The figures from the SOS:

R – 370,982 (38.4%)

D – 343,721 (35.6%)

U – 241,294 (25.0%)

According to election expert, Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University, on Oct. 30, 2008 the ballot returns in Colorado were:

R – 35.9% D – 37.7% U – 26.4%

That means Republicans have seen a five-point shift in early voting since last cycle when Obama took Colorado by nine points.

As a reminder, according to the most recent Colorado poll by bipartisan firm Purple Strategies, Romney is winning Unaffiliated/Independent voters who have voted already 48-39. Romney and Obama were tied overall among all Indies.

In 2008 CNN exit polls, Obama took Indies by 10 points, and won 13% of Republican votes, compared to McCain who only won 7% of Democrat votes. The Purple Poll has Romney taking Republicans 92-6, while Obama wins Democrats 90-8.

UPDATE: Republicans are leading Democrats in ballot returns in the three most major swing counties in Colorado. In Arapahoe they are leading by 2,723, by 4,029 in Larimer and 5,245 in Jefferson.


Check out the Oct. 30 ballot return report county-by-county breakdown here.

Previous ballot return figures for Oct. 29, Oct. 26, Oct. 25, Oct. 24 and Oct. 23.


(NO)SHOCK: Liberal Operatives Say Obama Leading…New Poll Showing Obama Ahead In CO Has All The Credibility Of A DNC Press Release

The Democratic political affairs firm OnSight…the same firm that houses top campaign operatives for U.S. Senator Mark Udall and Governor John Hickenlooper…released a poll yesterday saying that Barack Obama is leading in Colorado.

Is anyone surprised while every other poll has Romney surging, Democrats are trying to end that momentum with a half-baked poll of their own? Nahhhhhh.

But still the press treated the poll as credible.

From KDVR’s Eli Stokols:



OCTOBER 26: Republicans Continue 3 Point Lead In Ballots Returned

Another day, another ballot return figure showing promising figures for Mitt Romney and Republicans in Colorado.

The Secretary of State released figures for total ballots returned this morning. The figures are as follows:

Total ballots cast: 626,097

R: 244,264 (39.0%)

D: 225,850 (36.1%)

U: 149,877 (23.9%)

The most recent Colorado poll, a NBC/WSJ poll by Marist released yesterday, has Romney winning Independent/Unaffiliated voters.

On October 23, 2008 Democrats were at 40% of ballots returned to Republicans’ 33%. Oh, how the tides have turned.


See ballot return numbers from October 25 here, October 24 here, and October 23 here.

Check out the county-by-county breakdown of the early vote here.


EXCLUSIVE: Senior Romney Official Predicts Colorado Win

With Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan rolling into town for a huge rally this evening, a high ranking Romney official is telling Colorado Peak Politics “we will win Colorado.”

Heretofore, Romney officials have been cautious about predicting outright victory in the state, happy to see polls moving in their direction, but avoiding any kind of clear declarations.

With early ballot returns trending Republican and an endless array of public polling showing the state swinging in Romney’s direction, folks on Team Romney are beginning to see Colorado as a strong pickup opportunity.

There is no clearer sign of Team Romney’s confidence than tonight’s joint rally with Romney and Paul Ryan at Red Rocks. It’s a rare event with both Romney and Ryan, but what makes it all the more important is the high expectations surrounding the rally.



OCTOBER 23: R – 70,826 D – 61,761 U – 37,687

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source, ballot returns as of this AM have Republicans leading. This includes mail-in ballots returned since they were mailed out on Monday, October 15, but not early voting numbers, which began yesterday.

According to the most recent Denver Post poll of Colorado, Governor Romney is leading among Unaffiliated/Independent voters 43-39.

Ballot returns as of the morning of October 23:

Democrats – 61,761

Republicans – 70,826

Unaffiliated – 37,687

Advantage, Romney.


COLORADO RASMUSSEN POLL: Romney 50 – Obama 46, Five Point Shift Towards Romney

Another Colorado poll, another sign Romney’s post-Denver debate momentum continues. Rasmussen is out with a poll today showing Romney up 50-46 over Obama, marking a five-point shift in Romney’s direction from Rasmussen’s last Colorado poll on October 7.

The October 7 Rasmussen poll had Obama winning 49-48.

Romney’s lead in today’s Rasmussen poll comes from a 12-point lead among male voters, while Obama clings to a thin 3-point lead among female voters. There’s a gender gap, to be sure, but not the kind the press and liberals have been talking about for the last couple of months.

The sample in today’s Rasmussen poll is 36D/40R/23U, significantly different from the Oct. 7 Rasmussen poll with a 30D/35R/30U sample.

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source, as of this morning approximately 36,000 Republicans had returned their ballots to 29,000 Democrats and 20,000 Unaffiliateds. It’s early, and hard to draw too many conclusions from, but that turnout seems to suggest today’s Rasmussen sample could be correct.

As we’ve been saying for months, we expect the Colorado electorate on Nov. 6 to have more Republicans than Democrats, despite left-wing pollster PPP’s suggestion that Democrats will magically turnout in higher numbers than they ever have in history.

Regardless of the perennial party ID fight, no matter how you slice it, Romney’s momentum in Colorado is real and continuing. Will it be enough to push him over the top? We’ll know in a little more than two weeks.


WHITE FLAG: Is Barack Obama’s Campaign Looking At Abandoning Colorado?

An article in yesterday’s National Journal revealed a potentially game-changing scenario for Democrats in Colorado — is Barack Obama’s campaign looking at abandoning Colorado?

Reports National Journal‘s Major Garret:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around OhioIowaNew Hampshire, and Nevada. [Obama Senior Advisor David] Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North CarolinaVirginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling. [Peak emphasis]

The Romney surge in Colorado is real, as both the recent Denver Post poll found as well as the RealClearPolitics polling roundup that gives Romney a slim 0.7% lead over Obama.

We doubt there will be any obvious signs of an Obama pull out in the near term, if indeed that’s what Team Hopenchange is contemplating. We’re not even sure that the possibility is real — after all, we and most observers have thought the race in Colorado would come down to the wire.

Still, the mere possibility that Plouffe allowed the National Journal to float — without any pushback publicly so far — is fascinating.

If Obama were to abandon Colorado, that could spell D-O-O-M for down-ticket Democrats.

© 2011-2013 Colorado Peak Politics