MORE TURNOUT: Who Won the Turnout War?

In the final weeks of the campaign, operatives all over the state typically participate in the election game called the “ballot chase” as they harass and harangue voters with mail-in ballots to get them in – get them in now.  Come election day, that game morphs into the mad dash to get remaining voters to the polls via any means necessary.  Kidnapping?  Sure!

That’s why many Monday Morning Quarterbacks like to look at turnout for trends in voting that may have caused an election to swing one way or another.  To satisfy everyone’s curiosity, we’ve compiled the turnout from the most populated counties in Colorado to determine which party turned out the most of its voters.  For this chart we took number of voters and divided by all (active and inactive) voters to come up with percent turned out.  And the winner is…..

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SHADOW PRESIDENT: Romney’s Deficit Reduction Plan Takes Center Stage

After months of calling Mitt Romney a heartless money-bagged scrooge with plans to raise taxes on the middle class in order to cut taxes for the rich, now Democrats in Washington are saying something very different…Mitt Romney’s plan makes sense.

From the New York Times this morning:

WASHINGTON — With both parties positioning for difficult negotiations to avert a fiscal crisis as Congress returns Tuesday for its lame-duck session, Democrats are latching on to an idea floated by Mitt Romney to raise taxes on the rich through a hard cap on income-tax deductions.

The proposal by Romney, the Republican presidential nominee, was envisioned to help pay for an across-the-board income-tax cut, a move ridiculed by President Barack Obama as window dressing to a “sketchy deal.” But many Democrats now see it as an important element of a potential deficit-reduction agreement — and one they can claim to be bipartisan.

The cap — never fully detailed by Romney — is similar to a longstanding proposal by Obama to limit income-tax deductions to 28 percent, even for affluent households that pay a 35 percent rate. But a firm cap of around $35,000 would hit the affluent even harder than Obama’s proposal, which has previously gotten nowhere in Congress.

“Let’s just say there’s a renewed interest,” said Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. “Part of it is people reflecting on Obama’s proposal, but when Romney said what he said, it just added fuel.”

“I was a little surprised Romney proposed a dollar cap when he did it,” Conrad added.

A key difference between Obama’s and Romney’s plans is Obama’s planned on limiting even charitable deductions, which would inevitably screw a good portion of America’s charities, colleges and non-profits who rely heavily on the wealthy to donate in exchange for a lessened tax burden.

Beyond the fact that it was Obama’s proposal that was demonstrably bad for those that help poor people, we can’t help but marvel at the sheer brazenness of Democrats in Washington being such disingenuous, dishonest scoundrels.

They slammed Romney’s plan as the worst economic plan since Mao’s Great Leap Forward, and only days after the dust has settled from the election are already looking to adopt it.

Kind of like when Obama slammed Hillary in the primary over the individual mandate and then made it the centerpiece of Obamacare, eh?

 

GENDER GAP ERASED: Colorado the Only Swing State to Jettison Gender Gap

The female vote was critical in helping to re-elect Barack Obama this year in all swing states…except Colorado, according to Rutgers University’s Center for American Women in Politics.  According to the press release, nationally, a majority of women (55%) voted for Obama, while a majority of men (52%) voted for Mitt Romney.  The press release further notes that:

“Defined as the difference in the proportions of women and men voting for the winning candidate, a sizable gender gap was evident in the election results.The gender gap was 10 percentage points in 2012, with 55 percent of women, but only 45 percent of men, voting for Obama. The gender gap in this year’s presidential race is larger than in any year except 1996, when it was 11 percentage points. There was a 7-point gender gap in the final vote in both 2004 and 2008. Obama won about the same proportion of women voters in 2012.”

Most interesting among the findings was what wasn’t there – the gender gap in Colorado evaporated in the 2012 election. When defined as Rutgers does above, as the difference between the proportions of women and men voting for the winning candidate, Colorado saw Obama’s voters as 50% women and 50% men.  Even Romney’s gender percentages were not terribly far apart with 46% of voters as female and 49% as male.

To put it in perspective, eight of the nine swing states had gender gaps.  Colorado was the one that didn’t.  The following is the gender gap in each swing state:  Iowa (15 points), New Hampshire (11 points), Nevada (10 points), Ohio (10 points), Wisconsin (10 points), Florida (7 points), Virginia (7 points), North Carolina (5 points), and Colorado (0 points).

Below is a chart showing how women and men voted in the nine swing states.  Colorado came pretty close to even across the board.

Colorado performed far differently than the remainder of the swing states.  Perhaps it’s because the “war on women” model was developed here and women are growing wearing of talking about their reproductive organs.  Or maybe, while Republicans were not successful this election, there were some groups on the right that fought back against the left’s outrageous attacks.  While Republicans still were outspent this election, the fact that they weren’t steamrolled this election like in 2010 is a testament to the power of fighting back.

 

THE CONCESSION: Romney Exits the Race with Grace

Governor Mitt Romney’s Concession Speech:

I have just called President Obama to congratulate him on his victory.

His supporters and his campaign also deserve congratulations. I wish all of them well, but particularly the president, the first lady and their daughters.

This is a time of great challenges for America, and I pray that the president will be successful in guiding our nation.

I want to thank Paul Ryan for all that he has done for our campaign and for our country. Besides my wife, Ann, Paul is the best choice I’ve ever made. And I trust that his intellect and his hard work and his commitment to principle will continue to contribute to the good of our nation.

I also want to thank Ann, the love of my life. She would have been a wonderful first lady. She’s _ she has been that and more to me and to our family and to the many people that she has touched with her compassion and her care.

I thank my sons for their tireless work on behalf of the campaign, and thank their wives and children for taking up the slack as their husbands and dads have spent so many weeks away from home.

I want to thank Matt Rhoades and the dedicated campaign team he led. They have made an extraordinary effort not just for me, but also for the country that we love.

And to you here tonight, and to the team across the country _ the volunteers, the fundraisers, the donors, the surrogates _ I don’t believe that there’s ever been an effort in our party that can compare with what you have done over these past years. Thank you so very much.

Thanks for all the hours of work, for the calls, for the speeches and appearances, for the resources and for the prayers. You gave deeply  from yourselves and performed magnificently. And you inspired us and you humbled us. You’ve been the very best we could have imagined.

The nation, as you know, is at a critical point. At a time like this, we can’t risk partisan bickering and political posturing. Our leaders have to reach across the aisle to do the people’s work. And we citizens also have to rise to the occasion.

We look to our teachers and professors, we count on you not just to teach, but to inspire our children with a passion for learning and discovery. We look to our pastors and priests and rabbis and counselors of all kinds to testify of the enduring principles upon which our society is built: honesty, charity, integrity and family. We look to our parents, for in the final analysis everything depends on the success of our homes. We look to job creators of all kinds. We’re counting on you to invest, to hire, to step forward. And we look to Democrats and Republicans in government at all levels to put the people before the politics.

I believe in America. I believe in the people of America. And I ran for office because I’m concerned about America. This election is over, but our principles endure. I believe that the principles upon which this nation was founded are the only sure guide to a resurgent economy and to renewed greatness.

Like so many of you, Paul and I have left everything on the field. We have given our all to this campaign.

I so wish _ I so wish that I had been able to fulfill your hopes to lead the country in a different direction, but the nation chose another leader. And so Ann and I join with you to earnestly pray for him and for this great nation.

Thank you, and God bless America. You guys are the best. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thanks, guys.

 

CUYAHOGA TEA LEAVES: Obama’s Base Not Turning Out In Ohio?

By now, we are all amateur experts in what it takes to win Ohio.

And the first thing that John King, George Stephanopolous, David Gregory, et. al. have taught us is that the key to victory for President Obama in Ohio is that he wins a massive margin in Cuyahoga County in order to cushion Republican-inclined voters throughout the rest of the non-urban population centers around the state.

Said simply, Obama must win Cuyahoga big, or he will not win Ohio. In Colorado terms, it is the equivalent of running it up in Denver and Boulder to compensate for lost ground in places like Colorado Springs, Douglas County and Greeley.

So what is happening in Cuyahoga? Obama is falling short of the huge surge he needs.

From a local TV affiliate:

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SHOCK: Obama Election Day Radio Ad Seeks To “Disenfranchise” Voters By Saying They Need ID

OUR VIEW: The long campaign has got President Obama behaving like Scott Gessler.

After months of accusations from the Obama campaign and liberal activists that voter ID laws were a transparent bid to disenfranchise legal voters, the Obama campaign is out with a made-for-election-day radio ad in Colorado where voters are instructed to…Drum Roll …bring an ID in order to vote.

Apparently the grueling campaign has knocked the president off liberal talking points. To hear the radio here in the swing state of Colorado today, you can’t help but think the president is going all Scott Gessler on us.

Correspondents with the Peak and a couple other sources heard the ad this morning, prompting justifiable howls of hypocrisy.

It is Election Day, so The Denver Post will be too busy humping the president’s leg to report this wonderful bit of irony.

But we thought conservatives would want to know. Barack Obama is trying to disenfranchise voters by telling them they need an ID to vote.

Shame on you El Presidente. Shame. On. You.

(Post Script: We are trying to get a recorded copy of the ad. If you hear it, hit record on that iPhone, and Peak Nation will be most grateful.)

 

NOVEMBER 6: Election Day Ballot Report Shows Republican Lead, Tight Race

Arapahoe County voting lines via @RyanTNance

UPDATE: 5:15 PM SOS figures:

R – 35.8%

D – 33.7%

U – 29.3%

UPDATE 2:10 PM SOS figures:

R – 35.9%

D – 34.1%

U – 29.0%

UPDATE: New returns just sent by the SOS:

R – 36.0%

D- 34.2%

U – 28.7%

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Election Day stats are in and they portend a tight race tonight in Colorado. According to Secretary of State (SOS) records released this AM, Republicans retain the lead in early balloting, a shift from four years ago when Democrats led, but the lead is small, meaning tonight could be a very late night.

Total Ballots Received: 1,872,987

R – 675,797 (36.1%)

D – 642,834 (34.3%)

U – 534,012 (28.5%)

In the pivotal swing counties of JeffCo, Arapahoe and Larimer the GOP leads. Democrats have narrowed the gap in Arapahoe County, with Republicans holding onto a slim 159 vote lead. Republicans are holding onto significant leads of 6,640 in Jefferson County and 7,623 in Larimer County.

Check out the full county-by-county breakdown here (PDF).

Virtually every poll conducted in recent weeks in Colorado has found Mitt Romney with a healthy lead among Election Day voters, meaning the GOP’s lead in ballots cast will likely be added to significantly today.

We’ve received reports of packed voting lines across Colorado, particularly in GOP-heavy areas like South Jefferson County. Check back at the Peak for an update on turnout today.

 

SLOPPINESS OR SHENANIGANS: Reports Abound of Voting Irregularities in Colorado

UPDATE: The Denver Post reports that several voters were turned away from Columbine Library in Littleton, which is in the Republican-heavy area of south Jefferson County, this morning after poll workers were unable to find their names on the voter rolls.  According to Jim Mitchell of Littleton, who has been voting at the site for years, “apparently they [had] the wrong registration book.  We have to go to a different place.”

Several voters left and plan to vote later because the lines were so long.  The Peak will keep you updated about the turnout and any election results.  Stay tuned!

Polls have hardly opened for election day voting and already there have been reports of election day irregularities in Pueblo and Denver.

Yesterday, reports surfaced that voting machines in Pueblo are “switching” votes from Obama to Romney, prompting an audit from the Colorado Secretary of State’s office.  While the audit failed to unearth any malfunctions, the auditors found that the machines’ sensitive touch screens were susceptible to user error.  According to the Pueblo Chieftain:

“…with both Republican and Democratic observers using the machines, it was clear that voters must be careful in touching the electronic screens in order to vote for their intended candidate for president.”

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TIED: Dixville Notch Confirms Cooling Attitudes Toward Obama

Last night, Dixville Notch, the miniscule New Hampshire town that votes each election at midnight Eastern time, shows just how close the 2012 presidential election stands.  For the first time in the town’s history, the presidential tally was tied with five votes for the Obama/Biden ticket and five votes for the Romney Ryan ticket.

While the 2012 results were close, the results represent a cooling of feeling toward President Obama, who won the small town handily in 2008 with 15 out of 21 votes cast.  Dixville Notch may not be a bellweather for the overall election, but it is symbolic of an erosion of the overwhelming support President Obama experienced in 2008.  The rest of the nation will see if this is a growing trend tonight.

 

NOVEMBER 5: GOP Retains Lead In Early Balloting, Extent Unclear

UPDATE: Sources are telling Colorado Peak Politics that approximately 10,000 ballots received over the weekend in GOP-heavy Douglas County were not included in today’s SOS update.

Colorado Republicans held onto at least a two-point lead in ballots returned, according to Secretary of State records released this morning. It’s at least a two-point lead as major GOP counties like Douglas and Mesa didn’t process ballots over the weekend, while liberal hotbeds like Denver and Boulder did.

With that caveat noted, here are the ballot figures for those ballots returned and processed as of the morning of November 5:

Total Votes Cast: 1,707,805

R – 624,788 (36.6%)

D – 590,417 (34.5%)

U – 474,437 (27.8%)

Republicans are leading Democrats in the three biggest swing counties of Colorado. In Arapahoe they are up 1,274, up 6,487 in JeffCo and 7,409 in Larimer.

Check out the full county-by-county breakdown of ballot returns here.

 
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