GIVE IT UP, MIKEY: Statewide Poll Shows No Appetite For Tax Hike In 2013

Published on May 6, 2013 by

State Senator Mike Johnston, the better looking version of failed Prop 103 tax hike leader Rollie Heath, is pushing a $1.1 BILLION dollar tax increase for the ballot this year. A new survey by Magellan Strategies indicates Mikey would be better off staying at home than wasting his time pushing a tax hike when Colorado voters have no intention of supporting it.

Magellan polled 675 respondents from April 24-25 and found an overwhelming opposition to income tax hikes, with 55% of respondents opposed to the idea of raising the state income tax from 4.63% to 5.35% to only 36% supportive of the idea.

When asking about a graduated income tax hike, with those making less than $75,000 seeing their taxes go up 1%, while those making over $75,000 would see a 3% hike, the opposition increased slightly with 56% opposed and 35% in support.

Those results are close to the last tax hike attempt in Colorado, Prop 103 in 2011. That ballot initiative lost 2-1 across the state — a crushing defeat for Rollie Heath and his team.

Based on Magellan’s survey, it doesn’t look like this year’s tax hike attempt will fair much better.

The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.77%. The sample reflected the conservative leanings of odd year elections — historically low turnout affairs — with 39% Republican, 36% Democrat and 25% Unaffiliated. It used a combination of cell phones and landlines to reach respondents.

There was a bright spot in the poll for tax hikers — people are positive about the general idea of raising taxes for education 50%-43%. The problem for the tax hike set is that as soon as you ask about specific proposals, the bottom falls out.

It seems people like the idea of spending more money on education — as long as it’s someone else’s.

Long live TABOR!

UPDATE: An interesting note from the polling memo: The sample used is slightly more Democratic in its makeup than previous off-year elections, giving the pro-tax hike side a slight bump. And they are still getting crushed. See the partisan makeup of the electorate in 2009 and 2011 below:

 

GLASS JAW GOVERNOR? Hickenlooper’s Ability To Withstand A Political Punch Relatively Untested

Published on April 23, 2013 by

Governor Hickenlooper has been the recipient of a hard-hitting, professional attack ad campaign by Republicans just once in his political career. Once. And then Dan Maes took the GOP nomination and every outside player fled the state.

With Hickenlooper taking a 20-point hit in favorability in the latest PPP poll, it’s instructive to look back at that brief moment of political peril for the governor for what it says about his ability to take a political punch.

The assault by the Republican Governor’s Association (RGA) in early May 2010 focused heavily on his raising taxes as Denver Mayor and the job losses at Frontier Airlines that happened as a result, and tied him to unpopular one-term Governor Ritter.

The smartly produced, memorable spot had a little over half a million behind it over a one-month period — a not insignificant, nor exceptionally huge, budget.

As a result, Hickenlooper’s numbers went into freefall.

Less than two weeks after the assault on the airwaves began, a PPP poll found Hick had gone from an 11-point lead over Scott McInnis in the previous PPP poll to being tied.

It was a crushing blow that reshaped the race dramatically.

Unfortunately, soon thereafter everything fell apart. The plagiarism scandal consumed McInnis’s campaign and paved the way for the most disastrous major party nomination in modern history in Dan Maes. 

But it’s that ever-so-brief moment that makes some wonder whether Hickenlooper is as politically invincible as conventional wisdom would suggest.

The second sustained assault Hickenlooper has faced from Republicans in his career, though with virtually no paid media, was over gun control.

And just like after the RGA attack, Hickenlooper’s polling numbers plummeted like a cartoon anvil.

Two assaults, two big poll hits.

Does Governor Hickenlooper have a glass jaw?

 

MOST LIBERAL LEGISLATURE IN HISTORY: The Consequences Of Democrats Radical Redirect To The Left

Published on April 19, 2013 by

Yesterday’s Public Policy Polling survey of Colorado that found that Governor Hickenlooper had taken a 20 point nosedive among voters revealed one of the major consequences to come out of a legislative session dubbed by The Durango Herald‘s Joe Hanel as “one of the most liberal ever.”

A flashback to that Durango Herald piece from April 8:

DENVER – Love ‘em or hate ‘em, Colorado legislators have done a lot this year. 

If the session ended today, it would go down as one of the most productive and liberal ever, with new laws allowing civil unions, in-state tuition for children who lack citizenship and some of the only new gun control bills in the country this year, and they are on their way to expanding eligibility for Medicaid.

But with 30 days left in their annual session, Democrats are just getting warmed up.

KDVR’s Eli Stokols predicted this would happen in a 5280 Magazine piece in March, suggesting Democrats could be confronted with a case of “whiplash” from their over-reaching legislative agenda. (The article is offline right now, but we’ll link if/when it goes back up It’s been reposted here). Eli’s inner-Swami proved quite prescient.

The consensus among the Colorado press corps seems to be coalescing around the idea that this legislative session has been on the radical side of liberal…sorry, progressive…much to the chagrin of Democratic leaders like House Speaker Mark Ferrandino who promised to focus on “jobs, jobs, jobs.”

From gun control to Hitler’s dog to sex ed for 1st graders, the topic of discussion under the Gold Dome has been everything but economics so far this year.

Hick’s twenty point hit since Christmas, almost entirely in the form of moderate Republicans and independents fleeing his ship, is nothing to sneeze at. That fundamentally reshapes Hickenlooper’s political standing in the state.

Hick’s slide likely isn’t over yet, either. The Progressive Leap Forward still has many miles to go.

There is still a slate of horrible bills yet to reach the Guv’s desk — like driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants, a Common Cause-drafted election bill and a slew of anti-business legislation.

Not to mention the coming billion dollar tax increase campaign.

There is a reason the last tax hike campaign, Prop 103 in 2011, lost everywhere in Colorado but Boulder, Aspen and Telluride. Tax increases are like Democrats in Douglas County — a guaranteed loser.

While Hickenlooper managed to evade a public position on Prop 103, both the media and liberals are not likely to give him a free pass this time around. He’ll have to take a position. Coming out against it would enrage the left, and considering the pressure liberals were able to exact on him during the gun debate, we can’t be sure Hickenlooper won’t dive down the tax hike rabbit hole.

Suffice it to say supporting a tax hike in this economy won’t help improve his numbers.

The political blowback for legislative Democrats has only just begun, with a number of them having to fend off recall campaigns that will prove costly, both in time and treasure.

Such are the consequences for the most liberal legislature ever.

 

TAX HIKE HOORAY! 20 Democratic Senators Vote In Favor Of Bill Tied To Billion Dollar Tax Increase

Published on April 2, 2013 by

Today, the full Democratic Senate caucus voted in favor of SB213, the School Finance Act that is tied to a billion dollar increase.

For that, let’s give them three cheers.

No, not for the actual raising of taxes — which requires a vote of the people that is destined to fail — but for going on the record for a billion dollar tax hike.

A number of GOP consultants have asked us to extend their sincere appreciation to Senate President John Morse and his caucus — they just helped write a whole flight of direct mail hit pieces and fundraising solicitations.

We too would like to thank the fine Senators for helping clarify things. In 2011, we tried to get every member of the Legislature on record on the last tax increase try, Prop 103. Unfortunately, the mainstream press didn’t seem interested and didn’t try to track down the position of legislators, so we were forced to comb through the petition circulator list, legislator newsletters and video of town halls to figure out where our elected leadership stood on increasing taxes.

Tracking down tax hike stances of those in support of raising them has been difficult ever since the passing of TABOR. The Constitutional amendment that has helped save Colorado from a California-like financial reality has indirectly been a huge boon to Democrats in Colorado, as it has allowed them to hide their support for tax increases. SB213, with it’s reliance on a billion dollar tax hike to take effect, helps bridge that gap for campaign rhetoric. 

Sure, Democrats will cry that they didn’t vote for the tax increase itself, merely a bill that would only take effect should the tax hike pass. We’re sure GOP consultants will be glad to let local networks and papers explain the distinction without a difference. Today’s vote gives the consultants all the paid media grist they need to start slamming the senators as tax hike loving, gun hating left wingers, focused more on social policy than economic legislation.

You hear that, Democrats? That’s the sound of consultants clinking glasses in cheers for the business you just brought them.

 

FILED: Former State Rep. Judy Solano Files to Replace State Sen. Lois Tochtrop

Published on February 13, 2013 by

UPDATE: Of course, the real question – will Solano heed Tochtrop’s warning about gun control?  As we noted earlier, The Colorado Observer quoted Tochtrop as warning Democrats in swing districts that they “have to be very careful to vote their district’s sentiment” on gun control.  If Solano’s past behavior is any indication of future, we’re betting she ignores tips to moderate.

Former Democratic State Representative Judy Solano, who represented State House District 31, yesterday filed to replace State Senator Lois Tochtrop in Senate District 24, a district that is considered fairly competitive by some political insiders.  Tochtrop, who serves as the Senate Assistant Majority Leader, is term limited as a Senator.

Solano is a former teacher who received her largest donations in 2010 from unions, according to Ballotopedia.  Specifically, her four largest donors were the Food and Commercial Workers union, Colorado Education Association, Colorado Professional Firefighters union, and Service Employees International Union.  Adding to her liberal street creds, she’s a member of the embattled Adams County Democratic Party, the Colorado Education Association, the Colorado Environmental Coalition, the National Education Association, and the Sierra Club, Rocky Mountain Chapter, among others.

And, Solano is no ordinary liberal.  She sits on far left of the liberal spectrum as demonstrated by her quiet embrace of Proposition 103, which would have killed nearly 120,000 jobs in Colorado.  Solano also stood with her SEIU union goons brethren in a “solidarity protest” at Colorado’s State Capitol against reforms that Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker hoped to enact.

While Solano perhaps is best-known for her education legislation, her lesser-known votes would have spelled trouble for Colorado’s middle class families.  For example, she’s voted to increase vehicle registration and insurance fees as well as to increase utility bills in the name of green energy initiatives, which have worked out so well in Colorado (ahem, Abound).  And, then there are her votes that reveal her legislative love for trial lawyers and obsessive hate for home builders….

What does this all mean?  It means that 2014 is just another step closer.  Game on.

 

TAX HIKE COMETH: Legislative Democrats Could Push Bank-Breaking $2.75 Billion Tax Increase In 2013

Published on December 19, 2012 by

An online education-focused publication, funded in large part by the Colorado teachers’ union, is the first to report a shockingly audacious plan by newly-empowered legislative Democrats.

In 2013, Ed News Colorado reports legislative Democrats could seek up to $2.75 billion in tax hikes for education.

Colorado voters could face a $1 billion decision on school funding in the November 2013 election, if a complicated two-step reform plan plays out as its backers hope.

Discussions about the issue have been underway for more than a year but have intensified in recent weeks. Backers now plan to make school funding a top issue for the 2013 legislative session – and they hope to have a bill passed by mid-March…

Supporters of finance system reform, led by Democratic Sen. Mike Johnston of Denver, hope to achieve their goals in two steps. First, they want the legislature to pass a thorough modernization of the state’s school finance formula. Then they plan to ask voters for the money to support the new system. If the public doesn’t approve the necessary tax increases the new funding system wouldn’t go into effect.

Johnston’s partner in the effort is Sen. Rollie Heath, D-Boulder and author of a proposed tax increase for education that voters rejected in 2011…

At a meeting last week of what’s called the Technical Advisory Group, which Johnston has used as a sounding board on school finance, he estimated the cost of his suggested reforms at more than $2.75 billion. [Peak emphasis]

Whether it’s a $1 billion tax hike or a $2.75 billion tax hike, it’s enough to do serious damage to a slowly-recovering economy.

And if that isn’t enough to break your bank, the second and third part of their plans definitely will…including requiring local school districts to increase taxes even more to access these dollars:

continue…

 

PUBLIC SCHOOLS’ GSA MENTALITY: Investigations Turn Up Massive Spending With Public Dollars

Published on May 4, 2012 by

Prop 103, the proposed $3 billion tax increase for public education, failed two-to-one across Colorado. But after recent 7News and CBS4 investigations of outlandish spending by public school districts, if Prop 103 were to come up again it might go down with an even larger margin of loss.

Both CBS4 and 7News found school districts racking up insanely indefensible bills, such as Denver Public Schools spending $200,000 on fast food in a year, or school districts across the state hosting GSA-like conferences at the swanky Broadmoor hotel in Colorado Springs. If public school districts complain about budget cuts, their complaints are likely to fall on deaf ears if they're found paying for $30 hamburgers at the Broadmoor. 

It's not just major television stations uncovering these unexcusable wastes of taxpayer dollars. Education reform activist Regan Benson found that Jefferson County schools spent over $68,000 on just pizza in 2011. As Benson points out, that $68,000 could be better spent hiring seven part-time para-professionals who are used to support teachers and students, which, after all, is how education dollars are meant to be spent. 

The wasteful spending of Colorado school districts and the GSA junket in Vegas are both small amounts in comparison to their total budgets. But they destroy the lack of trust the public places in public officials to spend tax money. If you can't trust someone to spend the money you already give them properly, why in the world would you agree to give them more?

(Photo Credit: Flickr/ Mack_L)


 

COLORADO VOTERS: Andy Kerr Thinks You’re Stupid

Published on February 15, 2012 by

State Representative Andy Kerr (D-Lakewood) thinks Colorado voters are stupid. In leading the lawsuit to get rid of TABOR, the voter approved constitutional amendment that requires a vote of the people to raise taxes, Kerr is signalling that he thinks Colorado voters can't be trusted with deciding how much of their money the government deserves.

Tim Hoover of The Denver Post reports:

Inside a federal courtroom today, enemies of Colorado's Taxpayer's Bill of Rights will be poised to attempt the constitutional-law equivalent of a Hail Mary pass.  

Backers of a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of TABOR will be at a hearing, trying to survive the state's motion to dismiss their suit.  

The hearing, all observers agree, marks the first hurdle in what could be a historic moment in constitutional law.  

Most observers also say the lawsuit is a long shot.

Kerr's lawsuit states "TABOR represents delegation to the voters run amok."

Let's just say that's not a smart position to take heading into a competitive state Senate race against state Representative Ken Summers (R-Lakewood).

Voters didn't seem to have a problem voting down the $3 billion tax increase known as Prop 103 at a rate of 2:1 across Colorado. That election seemed like an orderly rejection of higher taxes to us, not anarchy. 

In Jefferson County, home of Kerr and Summers, the ballot initiative was shot down 62-37. 

Those are not numbers we'd want to be suing against if we were Andy Kerr.


What makes this all an exercise in both legal and electoral futility is that the case has very little to no chance of succeeding. All it does it set up Andy Kerr and the host of other liberals (and perennial GOP malcontent Norma Anderson) in a battle of trial lawyers vs. the people. 

We'll take the people.

It's a typical liberal approach to take it to the courts when they can't get what they want from the people.

“Andy Kerr’s deliberate attack on Colorado’s constitution is a slap in the face to the voters who approved the Taxpayers’ Bill of Rights,” said Compass Colorado President Tyler Q. Houlton. “Andy Kerr is so committed to raising taxes, he’s willing to subvert democracy here in Colorado to do it.”

And the TABOR lawsuit is only part of the wider liberal strategy to get courts to do their dirty work.

Liberals are also using the Lobato case to get billions more in funding for education that Colorado voters have soundly and repeatedly rejected. In the Lobato case, a student now at the University of Denver, Taylor Lobato, is the lead plaintiff claiming Colorado vastly underfunds education, to the tune of billions a year, and must be court-ordered to jack up funding. 

If the Lobato lawsuit succeeded it would lobotomize spending in everything but education (see what we did there?). We'd practically have to close the state prison system, and let out all the prisoners, just to find the money to add billions more in education.

Andy Kerr, do you think Colorado voters are smart enough to figure out that wouldn't be in their best interest? 

Should unelected judges determine how much of Coloradans' money should be spent or taken from the government?

Or should you just do a better job of trying to convince Coloradans to cough up more of it?

(Photo Credit: Colorado News Agency)

 

ACU COMES TO COLORADO: National Conservative Group To Start Rating Colorado Legislators

Published on January 24, 2012 by

The national conservative group, American Conservative Union (ACU), known for its "gold-standard" ratings of Congress is coming to Colorado. Last week the group that owns conservative.org and runs the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) announced that it would add the Colorado Legislature to its growing list of state legislatures it will grade.

ACU has been grading Congress on its votes since 1971 and its ratings have appeared in countless TV commercials and radio spots, especially in GOP primaries. 

Last year the ACU began rating state legislators votes, starting with an initial five states including Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. This year the group is adding Colorado in addition to California, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“Building on our legacy at the federal level, one of the American Conservative Union’s chief goals is ensuring voters know where their state elected representatives stand on the issues most important to conservatives,” said ACU Chairman Al Cardenas in a press release. “In its first year, our State Legislative Ratings program was extraordinarily well received – garnering significant attention from state legislators, grassroots leaders and activists and the media. The ACU is proud to expand this successful young initiative to a total of 15 states in the critical 2012 election year.”

This is a great thing for conservatives, adding another piece of data to analyze the voting records of state Representatives and Senators. It will also complement the Colorado Union of Taxpayers (CUT) scorecard, which has been criticized for some erroneous ratings — like putting conservative stalwart Senator Brophy at only 55/100 in 2011 (PDF). All rating systems have their shortcomings, as they depend on what bills the group decides to include. Having more ratings will allow for a more vibrant understanding of conservatism in the Capitol. 

It is also a mark of the importance of Colorado to the national political dialogue. Colorado's smashing 2-1 defeat of the $3 billion tax increase known as Prop 103 helped send the signal to politicians across the country that Americans feel they are Taxed Enough Already. What happens here matters.

With Colorado set to be a deciding state in the Presidential election, national political observers will be watching what happens here. The message that the ACU is sending by rating Colorado legislators is that the national spotlight is here to stay. 


 

GOVERNOR TO BE DETERMINED: A List of Hick’s Missing Issue Positions

Published on January 16, 2012 by

As Governor Hickenlooper embarks on his new taxpayer funded polling operation “To Be Determined” listening tour, we think it's instructive to look at what issues Hick has already marked TBD. As a gubernatorial candidate Hick never really had to stick his neck out on any issues — why bother when running against Maes and Tancredo? 

But as Governor he's kept that TBD political persona intact to the point of believing it's ridiculous to even expect clearly articulated issue positions from him, the state's Chief Executive. 

When Tim Hoover of The Denver Post asked him about political players from left to right complaining about his TBD persona, Hick complained, saying "where is it in the rule book that you have to always take a side and be part of these divisional arguments?"

Where in the rule book? Umm…it's in the job description, your Excellency. 

“Rather than lead Colorado to economic prosperity, John Hickenlooper governs with his finger in the air to notice any changes in the political winds,” says Tyler Q. Houlton, President of Compass Colorado. “This is a governor who refuses to take a stand on every important and controversial issue.”

“To Be Determined is a perfect name for Hickenlooper’s gutless jobs plan – he simply doesn’t have one.”

To conservative commentator George Will, Hickenlooper declared that due to Colorado's political makeup, he didn't even have to wade into the big issues, saying "we are such a purple state, we can avoid the big fights."

That doesn't even make sense. If we're a competitive state, then that necessarily means we'll have more big fights, not less. 

On some of these issues, Hick made sure to avoid a determination before the sell by date, like Prop 103, while on others Hick waited until a position was safe before taking it, like supporting Tebow. 

1. Prop 103: Can you imagine a CEO not taking a position on their company's revenue stream? That's exactly what Hickenlooper did on Prop 103.

2. Olympics: A Blue Ribbon Commission must decide before Hickenlooper lets the "entrepreneurial spirit" dictate this decision…you know since so many entrepreneurs farm out decision making to committees. 

3. Redistricting: Hick was happy to let the courts decide this one, rather than wade in during the legislative session and force legislators, who are accountable to the people, to draw the lines.

4. Reapportionment: Like redistricting, Hick could have made a difference, preventing the process from devolving into a vindictive attack on GOP women and incumbent GOP legislators. Instead, he watched the process from the sidelines and only weighed in to lament what happened afterwards. 

5. Early Childhood Literacy: No position during his State of the State speech. Still waiting on "bipartisan legislation."

6. Drilling on Roan Plateau: For a Governor who likes to mention his oil and gas background quite often, it's strange he's avoided a position on an economic development issue that could make an enormous difference to a region of the state with unemployment surpassing 20% in some counties. 

7. Endorsing Obama: It's been 287 days since Obama filed for re-election. Hickenlooper has yet to endorse his campaign, and has said he doesn't plan on stumping for him in Colorado. 

8. Tebow as starting QB: When Hick invoked Tebow during his State of the State address, you'd think he was a fan all along. Not so. Asked by Eli Stokols of Fox 31 back in October about Tebow moving into the starting QB position, Hick hedged and said he supported whatever Coach Fox wanted. 

9. DPS endorsements: During the Denver school board elections, Hick went out of his way to praise a slate of candidates, but refused to endorse them. Observers wondered why he didn't have the guts, or intellectual honesty, to just come out and endorse. 

10. Dealing With Occupy Denver: After much public lamenting about a supposed lack of legal recourse, Hick eventually shut down the squatter camps, but not until Senator Greg Brophy and talk radio bludgeoned him into doing so. 

11. Bill to make it harder to amend the state constitution: During the last legislative session, Hickenlooper refused to weigh in on a bill that would have made it easier to amend the state constitution. As the leading spokesman for many a ballot initiative, it's something Hick has had plenty of time to consider his position on, yet he stayed silent. Shocking. 

12. Unionization of state employees: There was vague talk of changing outdated personnel rules during the State of the State, yet on a defining issue when it comes to state personnel, Hick has been nowhere. That may change soon, as we hear talk of bills designed to force him into a position.

13. PERA reform: While State Treasurer Walker Stapleton was forced to sue to try to figure out where the problems reside on this massive public pension boondoggle, Hick has been nowhere. 


 
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