The popularity of Republican candidates within the party who are running for president has somehow translated in Washington that Democrats can take back control of the U.S. House with the defeat of two Colorado congressmen and dozens of others.
As Democratic chances of taking back the House improve with the success of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, party strategists are trying to figure out exactly how and where it’s going to happen. It’s not too difficult to see Democrats gaining 10, or even 20, seats in November, but gaining the 30 required for a majority is more difficult and will require Democrats winning a large swath of seats where Republicans are currently heavy favorites.
They think that either Republican as our nominee will create a Democratic wave that capsizes these 30 congressional ships, and that Reps. Mike Coffman and Scott Tipton’s campaigns can sink along with it.
For example, Democrats must win Colorado’s 6th District, where Democratic state Sen. Morgan Carroll is challenging GOP Rep. Mike Coffman in a suburban district that President Barack Obama won with 52 percent in 2012. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call recently changed the rating of Coffman’s race from Lean Republican to Tilts Republican.
The other scenario they preach is that Gail Schwartz coming into the race late with little money to wage her campaign can take Tipton in a district that does tend to swing back and forth between the parties.
But if Democrats are dependent upon shifting the tide to take control of the lower chamber with these two seats, we think their chance to win the House was over before it even began.
The author of the Roll Call story agrees it’s a long shot.
What Democrats should be worried about is keeping their Senate seat here safe, because that’s not such a long shot that Republicans will win it back.