“I promise, this poll is super accurate”
When the most recent Public Policy Polling Colorado Senate poll was passed around the Peak offices today, it was met with a mixture of yawns and chuckles. 47-43, Udall-Gardner, of all registered voters with those push-poll questions done for a group that has already dropped a million dollars in the race, someone is certainly trying to slap some lipstick on a pig.
As if PPP methods weren’t suspect already.
Let’s deconstruct this mess:
- All registered voters never vote in a Presidential election year, let alone midterms. To believe having a poll with all registered voters will reflect what happens in November is to believe Colorado will actually let spring weather happen in spring. Not only are Democrats facing a much more conservative electorate in this election cycle, they are also losing the vital enthusiasm factor as well.
- The questions asked by PPP were not aimed at getting an honest look at the electorate, but were rather more geared towards skewing one’s opinion. Case in point, Q4 and Q5:
Q4 If a candidate for office voted to provide billions of dollars in tax breaks to oil companies, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them in an election, or would it not make a difference?
Q5 Which candidate for U.S. Senate do you think would be more likely to do the bidding of big oil companies: Mark Udall or Cory Gardner?
Billions of dollars in tax breaks is never given any context. For all we know these could be standard corporate tax breaks that even Udall has voted for; hell, just last week Warren Buffet admitted the only reason he builds wind-turbines is for the tax breaks.
“…do the bidding of…” Gardner could be doing the bidding of the Easter Bunny and it would still sound nefarious.
- This poll was done for the League of Conservation Voters after they had already dropped one-million dollars in this race in April. These poll questions are already along the lines of the ads they’ve put on air so far. When a poll done for the Chamber of Commerce last month was leaked, the Chamber was still trying to figure out what races to enter and needed an accurate view of them. Not so for the LCV. They’re in. They’ve committed. This poll is just another earned media stunt. How else is Gardner +2 points with unaffiliated voters from a PPP poll released just last month, but -2 points worse overall than that poll?
Bottom line: this is a desperation poll by a group that has already sunk a million dollars behind a candidate—Udall—that is in serious trouble.