One of the legendary political prognosticators of the Washington Beltway is shaking up key congressional races in Colorado with two major rating changes that bode well for Republicans.
Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics has shifted Democrat U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo’s reelection bid in the new 8th Congressional District from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
And on the Western Slope where Republican nominee Jeff Hurd is taking on Aspen liberal Adam Frisch for the 3rd district seat, the ranking moves squarely to GOP territory as a likely Republican win.
“Yadira Caraveo has voted against her district over and over again, and now it’s come back to bite her,” said Delanie Bomar, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Coloradans are sick of the migrant and fentanyl crises and sky-high inflation, showing a big opening for Gabe Evans to flip this seat red in November.”
Sabato says Republicans are bullish about flipping the 8th district seat for Evans but that he will need outside help from Republican funders as Caraveo is rolling in the dough.
From the report:
It seems to rank as a better GOP target than many of the other seats in our Leans Democratic column. The district voted for Biden in 2020 by about 4.5 points, roughly matching his national margin, but it backed Trump by a couple of points in 2016 and was bluer for president in 2008 and 2012 than it was in 2020.
Over in the 3rd District, Sabato says the Democrat also has an overwhelming edge over Hurd with money in the bank, but that district glows red at the presidential level, which will benefit Hurd.
With Trump likely to approximate his 8-point margin in the district again, we can see Frisch hanging close but having a lot of trouble getting those few extra percentage points he would need to get over the finish line.
The Western Slope moves from “leans” to a “likely Republican” win.
“Our condolences to Adam Frisch as his Rocky Mountain High crashes into reality. His act isn’t fooling anybody – he is an extreme Democrat out of step with Colorado,” Bomar said.