National Democrats official hit the panic button today as veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg released a 100+ slide Power Point presentation which basically can be summed-up thus: If we manipulate the numbers really hard, things are not really as bad as we all assume them to be. Yet, this huge amount of Democratic spin comes at a cost for them. It only illustrates that for Sen. Mark Udall things are even worse.
Udall is tied in Greenberg’s poll with Rep. Cory Gardner 45%-45%. Less than a month out, polling in the mid-40’s with no lead, welcome to the incumbent death zone Mr. Udall. But, what has got to be the absolutely worse news from this Democratic attempt at “good” news, is that their polling shows Udall, his attacks, and his messaging have hit a wall. There are essentially no voters left for Udall to grow his numbers.
One poignant slide points this out. On slide 53, Greenburg polls the races among voters before and after the “message vote.” By “message vote,” they mean their attacks on Republicans. The other three states (North Carolina, Iowa, and Georgia) perform like one would assume they would, when the Republican has a bunch of nasty things told about them the Republican loses votes (between at least 3 to 5 points in the other states). Colorado on the other hand, Cory Gardner actually gains a point after the pollsters read the attacks against him.
The moment Udall’s campaign died.
Udall is f@#$ed.
Greenburg tries to bury the inconvenience of Colorado at the very end of his slides, pushing the Colorado in-depth analysis to slide 97. On slide 111 we see that Udall has done the impossible and hit the until now unknown threshold of diminishing returns for Democrats “war on women” messaging. Every single attack ad Udall now shows on TV ends up costing him more support than he gains from them. To further emphasize this, Udall has maxed out his goodwill with the ultra-liberal, Democrat-dominated, unmarried women, where his attacks against Gardner will not move the numbers any higher, and leaves Udall sitting at 45% with no where to go. Udall has reached his ceiling.
This explains why Udall’s campaign has recently took to twitter trying to attack Gardner on any and every thing, hoping that something will take, and they can eek out just a few more votes. Otherwise, Udall is dead in the water at 45%.
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