In trouble

You know what they say about the weather polls in Colorado: if you don’t like one, wait 15 minutes.  Despite Colorado Lefties best attempt to declare Sen. Mark Udall the most awesomest, bestest, coolest dude who ever lived the front runner in his race away from Obama for re-election, everyone who has a pulse on this race knows that the recent left-leaning polls don’t reflect the feeling on the ground.  In the newest poll released (as of an hour ago, so that might have changed), the USA Today / Suffolk poll has Rep. Cory Gardner leading Udall 43-42.

Despite, finally having a poll where people actually like him more than dislike him (44/43), Coloradans severely dislike the job Udall is doing in Congress with nearly 50% disapproving (40/49, fav/unfav).  And, despite Udall and his fellow leftie liberals basically carpet bombing Gardner with anti-women ads, Gardner’s favorable and unfavorable with women are nearly even (40/42).  Then again, judging on how much Udall was willing to spend on Obamacare (over a trillion) to lower the uninsured rate by expanding Medicaid, we wouldn’t be surprised if he felt he got a good return for the tens of millions of dollars he spent to attack Gardner.

Unfortunately for Udall, all that money looks like it will end up being for a lost cause as the demographic breakdown of the poll heavily favors Gardner.  Suffolk weights the poll 33% Republican, 31% Democrat, 35% Unaffiliated.  But, by most accounts, it is unaffiliated voters who stay home the most during mid-term elections, and Udall is actually slightly leading them (39/35).  This means, even if the percentage of voters lost from unaffiliated voters not showing up on Election Day is split evenly between Republicans and Democrats that would still result in a net gain for Gardner.

Having already tried to hurt Gardner with despicable ads about floods and women, there isn’t really any place left for Udall to turn to attack Gardner.  It’s pretty much like Udall is up a creek mountain without a paddle rope.

The same demographics have got to have Gov. John Hickenlooper worried as he sits only two points ahead of former Rep. Bob Beauprez (43/41).  Even more so, since he is performing better with unaffiliated voters against Beauprez than Udall is against Gardner (42/33).  Add on top of this, the disturbing trend that Hickenlooper seems to have a very hard ceiling in the low 40’s.  The RGA has already pretty effectively neutralized one of Hick’s strengths with his so-called “quirky” commercials, which means Hick might not have many other cards to play either.  He’s overexposed as it is, and each added event makes it that much more likely he finally gets hit by the proverbial gaffe Mack truck coming through.