“I hate this week” – Mark Udall
In case you missed the news yesterday, the Washington Post headline on the likelihood of Republicans taking back the Senate the Democrats’ sinking ship says it all – “The odds of Republicans winning the Senate are growing”. And, here’s the lede on the article:
“All three major election forecasting models saw an uptick in the likelihood of Republicans winning the six seats they need to retake the Senate majority over the past week, movement largely due to the party’s strengthened chances in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa.”
The article looked at the following election models: Washington Post‘s Election Labs, The New York Times‘ Leo, and FiveThirtyEight. Here are each model’s current likelihood of takeover by Republicans:
- WaPo Election Lab: GOP has 76% change of winning majority
- NYTs Leo: GOP has 67% chance of winning majority
- FiveThityEight: GOP has 60% chance of winning majority
These are big jumps from just a week ago when Election Lab, Leo, and FiveThirtyEight had the chances at just 65%, 55%, and under 55%, respectively. Washington Post attributed the jump to a variety of factors, but Colorado’s race was a big one:
“The other big change in Republicans’ favor is in Colorado. Seven days ago , FiveThirtyEight’s model called the state a true 50-50 tossup while Leo gave Sen. Mark Udall (D) a 55 percent chance of winning and Election Lab was even more optimistic for Udall at 67 percent. All three models today agree that Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is a (slight) favorite; FiveThirtyEight says Gardner has a 56 percent probability of winning while Leo is at 61 percent and Election Lab 66 percent. Like Alaska, several new surveys have show movement in Gardner’s direction.”
Yesterday must have been a really terrible day for Mark Udall. First, his “youthful indiscretion” story about his pot arrest is blown up. You’re welcome. Then, all three major election models show his chances of election slipping through his fingertips. But, like the student who crams for a final after not studying all semester long, Udall is trying to play catch up for almost six years of doing nothing in the U.S. Senate. Well, he did create a bipartisan seating chart that one time. November 4th might be a sad, sad day for the Udall Dynasty.