Senate Democrats thought that they could “rally the base” with baseless accusations against Judge Brett Kavanaugh during the nomination process. It might have worked for a few precious days, but as Senator Feinstein’s strategy unraveled so did their party’s enthusiasm gap advantage.
An enthusiasm edge is measured by the difference in how a party’s membership consider an upcoming election “very important.” In July of this year, Democrats held commanding 10 point lead in in this metric. Now, according to a new NPR/PBS poll, that gap has shrunk to 2% in October which is inside the margin of error of +/- 4.2%.
According to an NPR analysis of this latest poll, the Democrats’ strategy of scorched earth offense against Kavanaugh did not further their cause – it actually diminished it. NPR is now saying that the “Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base.”
Further, the poll uncovered that while 82 percent of Democrats believe that the midterms are “very important,” just 60 percent of the under 30 crowd feels the same way, and just 61 percent of Latinos are fired up.
So what does this mean for Colorado candidates in swing districts take notice – this blue wave may be little more than a pebble falling into the kiddie pool. As long as Republicans can turn out their base – that could be enough in a low turnout election where many large, key demographics are not inspired to turn in their ballots.