Ed Perlmutter issued a fairly myopic prediction about the trajectory of inflation over the summer.

Last August, a constituent raised concern about the high cost of construction materials in a telephone town hall.

“I understand lumber sort of peaked about a month ago, and it’s been coming down, has that been true for you or not?” Perlmutter asked.

The constituent who works in construction responded with a half-hearted chuckle.

“From my perspective, no,” he said.

“To give you perspective with lumber, it’s not just lumber, it’s a lot of the synthetic materials, stuff that’s processed and manufactured from oil, gas. But with lumber specifically one sheet of OSB board February of last year was $14, and now we’re pushing $60 to $70 a sheet.”

Perlmutter attempted to downplay his constituent’s concerns about the high costs of construction materials saying, “I think these things are going to peak. I think they’re going to come back down.”

That’s not how things have played out, to put it lightly.

Lumber prices have resumed their climb, rising over 95% over the last five weeks.

Lumber futures on a continuous contract basis have soared 95% since November 15 when prices started steadily climbing. On Monday, they reached $1,044 per thousand board feet compared with nearly $540 in mid-November. Lumber prices are still off their highs from May, when a surge sent prices above $1,700. 

Thanks to trillions in new spending from Democrats like Perlmutter, it’s not likely inflation will subside any time soon.

Republicans, and even some left-leaning economists such as the former Obama administration officials Lawrence H. Summers and Jason Furman, have blamed the rapid price increases across the economy on the aid package that Mr. Biden signed in the spring. They say the package’s direct assistance to Americans, including $1,400 checks to individuals and enhanced benefits for the unemployed, fueled more consumer demand than the economy could bear, driving prices skyward.

Perlmutter’s erroneous prediction caught the attention of the National Republican Congressional Committee, who sent out a press release referencing Perlmutter’s comments from August.

“Ed Perlmutter is part of the problem. Thanks to his party’s reckless spending, the inflation costs plaguing Coloradans are only getting worse,” said NRCC Spokeswoman Courtney Parella.

While rates are expected to go up next year, that’s not exactly the best news for the construction industry.

According to Bankrate “Interest rate hikes, soaring inflation and a smaller bond-buying program are a recipe for higher mortgage rates in 2022.”

In addition to higher mortgage rates for homebuyers, the increased cost of borrowing will also effect homebuilders who finance their projects with loans.

All told, the inflationary mess created by Perlmutter and Democrats in Congress will continue to haunt the economy well into 2022.

That’s a massive political risk for the Arvada Democrat, who has indicated he plans to run in 2022 but has not issued a formal announcement as of yet.

CNN reported this week the Democratic retirement floodgates in Congress have officially “burst open.”

Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy announced Monday that she will not seek a fourth term in Congress, the latest in a rapid series of retirements within the Democratic ranks that suggest momentum is moving heavily against the party as it seeks to hold on to its razor-thin majority next November.

Murphy’s decision came less than 24 hours after New Jersey Rep. Albio Sires said he would be retiring at the end of this Congress. And, just before the Sires’ news, California Rep. Alan Lowenthal said he, too, would be stepping aside

Will Perlmutter ultimately run 2022? In all likelihood yes, but every day that goes by with even more Democrat retirements makes his political future even more uncertain.