When 45.9% +1 vote doesn’t add up to a second-term
Colorado liberals’ firewalls continue to fall as yet another one of their favorite sources turned against them. Unlike a certain poll commissioned by the League of Conservation Voters last week, the most recent Public Policy Polling poll on Colorado is from PPP alone. Released last night, PPP has Rep. Cory Gardner up over Sen. Mark Udall by three points (48%-45%), while former Rep. Bob Beauprez and Gov. John Hickenlooper couldn’t be any closer, with them tied going even to the first decimal point, 45.9% each.
While the Colorado Left has been clinging to the hope that Colorado Democrats have outperformed most polls in the last two elections, they’ve always excluded PPP, as the Dem-leaning organization has been the most accurate pollster during that same timeframe. Yet, with PPP saying Udall is all but dead, and Hick is no better than a coin flip, there’s not much Colorado Lefties can point to in this poll to complain about. If anything, the demographics of this PPP poll overestimate Democrats.
A 53-47, female to male split runs a half-point more female than the electorate who turned out in 2010, and is nearly a full point more female than the current returned ballots as of this morning. In a race where Beauprez and Hick are tied to the first decimal point, getting the gender make-up exactly right is critical.
Likewise, Colorado Lefties are quick to dismiss any unfavorable poll based on whether enough Hispanics were surveyed or not, but at 13% of the weighted average in this PPP poll, PPP splits the general consensus that Hispanics will makeup between 12 and 14 percent of the electorate this cycle.
Yet, one spot where PPP seems to be wildly optimistic is the party makeup of the electorate. Going by the ballots returned reported this morning, Colorado’s voting electorate is currently 40.5% R, 32.4% D, and 27.1% U. The PPP poll is 39% R, 37% D, 24% U. With Colorado Democrats planning for a five-point deficit, there is no way in hell we will see a political party breakdown like PPP has.
As for a Quinnipiac poll that was released this morning… Well, let’s just say pollsters don’t live in a vacuum, and Quinnipiac must have felt quite exposed by its polls consistently given Gardner and Beauprez their largest leads. Short-hand on Q’s poll this morning: Quinnipiac is hedging its bets. Look no further than its 55/45, female to male split.
Or, to better summarize, here’s a tweet from national poll watcher Nate Cohn:
Today, in public polling https://t.co/3QIgUL5sDn
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2014