A new poll out today by RBI Strategies shows Michael Hancock edging out Chris Romer 41-37 in the Denver mayoral June runoff election. Hancock leads Romer 46-35 among Dems, and 40-37 among unaffiliateds. Romer leads Hancock 45-28 among GOP voters, who make up 19% of active voters.
Active voters are the only registration 
measure that matters because the election will be all-mail, with ballots only mailed to those on the active list. While the poll oversamples Democrats by eight points and undersamples unaffiliateds by six, that's probably an accurate reflection of the June electorate in a Dem heavy city, with only Democrats in the running. RBI's polling sample suggests they believe Republicans will turn out exactly in line with their active registration numbers.
That makes sense to us, as Republicans have been paying more attention as of late, with the Denver GOP, under the strong leadership of Danny "Urban Cowboy" Stroud, hosting a debate last night between Romer and Hancock. Republicans hoping for fireworks were rewarded with a sharp and contentious debate, with both candidates sniping at each other's integrity and background in the debate. As we've said before, we love it when liberals fire away at each other.
Hancock, who comes across as more likeable, we predict has a larger hurdle to cross with GOP voters due to his two pay raise votes. At a time when school budgets are being slashed and cops laid off, Hancock has voted for pay raises for city employees as well as himself. That will not go over well with a GOP electorate hungry for cuts, not increases.
But by many accounts Hancock did a superb job at last night's debate, with Lori Horn of R Block Party praising Hancock's answers. If Hancock eats any further into Romer's GOP support, it could spell big trouble for Romer.
The one bright spot for Romer in the poll is of all the supporters of candidates who didn't make the runoff, Mejia's supporters are the most undecided and also the most likely to vote in the runoff. Romer better hope Mejia starts pounding some serious pavement in Northwest and Southwest Denver, and soon.
We suspect that a good part of the lead is a tribute to the gushing coverage Hancock received in the 48 hours after the first ballot. While the Post ed board endorsed Romer, the newsroom clearly sees it a different way, hailing the most positive attribute of Hancock's background (his rags to riches story) while clamping like a Bulldog on the least advantageous aspect of Romer's (his background as an investment banker). This story line is as good as free media for Hancock. He should send a meat and cheese platter to the Post newsroom for relentlessly pushing it. And Romer better figure out a way to combat it, or else.
In Mejia for not keeping the “Anti-Romer” coalition alive, but there is no way this native Republican will EVER support a Romer as long as I live, I remember the 80’s too well!
of handing the Romer family an election in the loss column is too good to pass up indeed!
So of course we’re going to have two libs running. Hancock doesn’t want to use this as a stepping stone like Hick did and Romer will. He was much more impressive last night, and frankly, I was just going to vote for him so Romer doesn’t win; that Hancock has good ideas is just a bonus. Romer is such a sleazy politician to boot.
This Republican likes Hancock’s honesty and straightforward answers. He certainly doesn’t align with my political beliefs but he has out of the box answers for retail and bringing business to Denver. Love “building the bench” of small companies becoming large companies in a “grow your own” approach. I get the impression that he will LISTEN to people while his opponent will TELL people. “Politics as Usual” belongs to Romer. His mischaracterization of Hancock in his commercial fits the profile of old political rhetoric. Here’s something else old: Senator(silver spoon)Romer: WHERE’S THE BEEF?
I agree that Romer’s attack on the pay raise vote did not go over well last night in the debate. But I think it’ll be effective on TV, as Romer’s politician-ness comes across worse in person.
Then again, the debate last night was crowded with many an influential conservative activist, so word could travel fast in the activist community and dampen the attack’s effectiveness.
and it’s ability to appear both on TV as well as in person.
Where’s the cupcake? hahaha
If you watched the entire debate last night (now available on People’s Press Collective), you will see Hancock answer the charge that he voted himself a pay raise. He didn’t. The pay raises are due to take effect in 2014 and were mandated. The more that Romer repeats his “misrepresentation” of the facts, the more Romer looks like the candidate of “business as usual”.
Go to PPC’s website and see for yourself.