UPDATE 2: A reader emails us to point out the most obvious question regarding Huck’s departure. Who gets the pivotal Chuck Norris endorsement?
UPDATE: Donald Trump just announced he’s not running. It seems the narrative on the primary this week is more about who’s not running than who is. Who does this news benefit? We have no idea. It certainly isn’t good news for comedy writers.
There have been major movements over the last week in the GOP Presidential primary with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich throwing his hat in the ring, while former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee decided he likes the pay at Fox News more than the chance to be President.
On Saturday night on his Fox News program, Huckabee announced that while
all signs said go on a Presidential campaign, his heart (and bills) said no. His decision not to run fundamentally shakes up the race, as Huckabee lead or was close to the top of many national polls, and perhaps more importantly, had a significant lead in the early states of Iowa and South Carolina.
Not only does his decision to not run re-jigger the contests in those two key early states, but they leave a wide slice of the electorate without their favorite son. Huckabee was the preferred candidate of social conservatives and southerners based on early polling and his performance last go-round. There is no obvious second choice for these groups, meaning the race is a whole new ball game as of this week.
The last publicly released poll on the race in Colorado was done back in February by left-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP), who had Huckabee tied for second place with Palin at 16%. With it looking more likely by the day that Palin won't run either, that leaves a large amount of Colorado conservatives up for grabs.
Gingrich was right behind Huckabee and Palin at the time with 12%, but his campaign has struggled in the last few months. His candidacy has received a lukewarm reception from conservative leaders and columnists and he has struggled to raise money in the small increments allowed under FEC law. For the last few years Gingrich was able to take seven figure checks from corporations and wealthy supporters to fund his various endeavors, like American Solutions, leaving him unaccustomed to the grind of fundraising that defines a Presidential campaign.
So who gains from a wide open race here in Colorado? The first beneficiary would seem to be Romney who benefits by the field lacking an anti-Romney conservative darling. In that PPP poll from February and in subsequent, less scientific, straw polls Romney has retained a plurality of support, but seems like he would struggle to regain the majority support he had in 2008, when he took 60% of the caucus vote.
The second beneficiary would be Pawlenty, who aims to become the anti-Romney conservative choice. His strategy is in part based on a strong finish in Iowa, so losing the former Iowa winner from the race improves his chance to get a running start from the Hawkeye state. Pawlenty was at 7% in the PPP poll in Colorado, but he's a little known figure who is just beginning to build his name ID among the primary electorate.
The third level of beneficiary would be either Michelle Bachmann or Herman Cain who just gained a chance to audition for the grassroots, social conservative movement candidate. While Huckabee was going to face an uphill battle with fiscal conservatives due to his record as Governor of Arkansas, these two candidates have appeal to both fiscal and social conservatives and now have a chance to gain the support of those two sometimes overlapping constituencies.
Regardless of how you view our analysis on the beneficiaries, one thing is for sure. This race just got blown wide open in the last week.
He’s become more interesting to me recently. He seems sober minded, sometimes too much, but also a good standard bearer because he’s likeable and conservative.
His fundraising numbers will be interesting when they come out in July. If he can convince big donors to back him, then there might be something there.
I wonder, though, if a Bachmann run kills his chances in Iowa, and therefore his chance of gaining steam early in the nominating process.
If he can raise the money, he’ll be a great candidate.
Romney looked decent (for a RINO), until his horrific speech/defense of RomneyCare. Just like the Wall St Journal said, why didn’t talk about how bad the program turned out to be? Instead he talked up how wonderful it was.
Romney is an embarassment from Taxachusetts. Daniels looks good too, Gingrich really missed his shot 10 years ago and should just ride off into the sunset.
LoverofLiberty, you’ve got to be joking about Ron Paul right?
Gingrich is a part of the old Republican party. We need knew faces. And he’s definitely not going anywhere as long as he keeps attacking Ryan’s budget plan.
Pawlenty did a great job as a governor in a blue state, and he’s a good communicator to boot. He and Mitch are my favorites right now.
also has perhaps the best operation up and running from strategists to fundraisers. It’s just a shame he doesn’t have higher name ID. Romney has great fundraising too, but he’s way too big of a liability.
Ron Paul is still the only candidate formally in the race who has a proven ability to raise money, rally supporters, and stand by his ideological convictions. Until I see another candidate capable of those three things, I’m sticking with Paul.
tin foil hats with every donation over $5!!!!! Sign me up!
But Ron Paul is the only candidate who hasn’t had to apologize for conservative apostasy in his past. He may have some issues where you disagree, but he has always been intellectually honest in his positions. Plus, other than Romney, who else is able to pull millions of dollars in during a single day?
were actually CREDIBLE and BELIEVABLE as a VIABLE general election candidate, you might have a point, but since none of the above have ever applied you might need to look in another direction. And as far as your “intellectually honest” argument is concerned, three words: North American Union
Just because you are bat-shit crazy, decide to run for President so all the bat-shit crazy people in the country decide to send you a $5 donation online to renew their “Ron Paul approved” tin-foil hat, doesn’t make you CREDIBLE, BELIEVABLE, or VIABLE. But on the bright side, you get to blame the “liberal” media for demoralizing and distorting your “leader of the Revolutions” record.
Kind of disappointed Trump isn’t running… It would have been such great fodder for so many jokes!
I’d say she’s remaining purposefully vague, but given the chance I don’t see why she wouldn’t. If she doesn’t, Cain probably picks up some support, especially in the South.
Palin is too polarizing among her own GENDER let alone the entire ELECTORATE.
She, like Huckabee, likes making money more than having their family attacked ad nauseum in a Presidential race. Can you blame them? She’s not stupid, despite what liberals say, and knows it would be literally impossible to win a general election. Unless she ran like Tancredo or Ron Paul, who do it to make a point, she would be putting her family through a whole lot of hell for nothing.
the lady who quit on the people of Alaska so she could get her own reality series…
gain another. Gingrich is a great orator and does think things through, but he is too old and too tired to represent a vibrant and aggressive electorate. Too bad Trump is out, but maybe he is positioning for a solid running mate Trump-Biden debates could go down in infamy!!
about the “Gasoline Prices Are Too Damn High” candidate. I’m definitely voting for him if I’m not a big fan of whoever gets the nomination.