The key to winning a tough ballot initiative is having a rhetorically-potent one sentence argument. Rollie Heath's argument: let us tax you more for schools.
The key to defeating a ballot initiative is to have a one-sentence argument 
almost as good as the proponents — not even necessarily better, just strong enough to create doubt.
Today, the opponents of Initiative 25, Rollie Heath's five-year $3 billion tax hike, found an argument that easily clears that bar: if approved, Heath's tax increase will kill 119,000 jobs.
This was the finding of an independent study by Eric Fruits of Economics International Corp and Portland State University:
"Earlier this year, Colorado Senator Rollie Heath proposed three education-funding initiatives for the November 2011 ballot. The proposed measures would raise the individual and corporate income tax rate from 4.63 percent to 5 percent (an 8 percent increase) and increase the state sales tax rate from 2.9 percent to 3 percent (a 3 percent increase).
…If passed, the measures constitute a potentially significant shift of resources from private hands to the public sector. Information from Colorado Legislative Council Staff suggests that the Heath Measures would increase state taxes by $536.1 million a year. A substantial portion of the Heath Measures’ increased taxes would be borne by Coloradans earning less than $100,000 a year."
The press release we received about this study included a chart on job losses, which we've recreated in easier-to-read format for our readers. Here is what happens to job losses in Colorado for each year of the tax hike:
This kind of data seems like it could be used pretty effectively in an ad blitz against the initiative, though we wonder if it will even be necessary to put much effort into opposing it. After all, Heath can't even seem to get any major Democrats on board with him.
Tax hike ballot initiatives always have an uphill battle, especially in a weak economy. Studies like this just serve to hammer home what everyone, including Governor Hickenlooper, already knows: raising taxes kills jobs.
For more on the study click here.
Maybe you should read the “independent” study before regurgitating whatever the Senate GOP tells you to cough up. They seemed to be in a rush to release some sort of release before actually reading the “independent” study. The 119,000 number is just totally wrong, even according to the “independent” study. 30,500 jobs lost is a cumulative number, not an annual job loss. Which is to say, there will be 30,000 jobs lost after 5 years. At least that is what it says in the “independent” study. You can’t add five years of cumulative totals to come up with some sort of mega super cumulative total lie number, which is what you’ve done here.
Obviously I find the study’s findings ridiculous, but you may as well quote the number correctly instead of exaggerating 4 fold about it’s supposed effects.
But if all you’re going for is shock value, then who cares if you lie. I figured I would “clear the air” for the handful of righties that may read your blog.
Ya big dummies.
Don’t know where they got that from; they anticipate about 85,000 lost jobs as a direct result of Heath’s increase and roughly 25,000 citizens “migrating” out of state. My only thought on the 119,000 number would be that they combined several factors–not sure which. On the other hand Heath himself anticipates 30,000 net lost jobs and about 3,000 out-bound “migration”, so whoever’s estimate you believe it’s a loser.
Even though you’re trying to make a liberal troll point, the numbers don’t jive–but then again “Grandpa” Heath expects job losses, so it’s lose-lose all around.
It’s not that clear from the research whether the 30k or 120k. Either way, it’s still not good for our economy.
Do you really think voters will willingly choose to lose tens of thousands of jobs?
Peak’s “Annual Job Loss” column is in fact what Heath himself (with the Legislative Council’s analysis) expects his tax hike to do to Colorado jobs. He expects 30k+ jobs to be lost.
Of course he didn’t say his initiative creates jobs, only that it boosts revenues, so can’t exactly call him a liar. Way to kill the Golden Goose Rollie.
Did PeakPols give this bad information to the Senate GOP, or vice versa? Either way, the Senate Republicans reprinted the 119,000 number, and now they both look like complete idiots.
How about it, PeakPols? Are you gonna correct this ridiculous blog post that makes you look like fools? Are you going to admit that you multiplied the “correct” projection many times for no reason? Are you going to post the actual predicted number, 30,500, or keep spreading lies?
Or will you blame Sen. Mike Kopp, who spread them with you? Did you lead Kopp down the path of destruction by not reading the report, or was that him?
Your readers want to know! Have the integrity to tell them!
Or do you just take whatever ColoradoPols says as gospel?
Did you not see this?
That number does not appear anywhere in the study.
I think you’re full of shit. Please bring Eric Fuits here to say differently.
Rhino–Was that on Peak somewhere? Didn’t see that quote. However, I also pointed out that the numbers seemed to be incorrect in the “total jobs lost” category. I see how it’s calculated, but not how it bears out in the projections.
And to the liberal troll below–yes Heath’s 30,500 figure does appear in the study. It’s “Figure 2” in the report, a graph depicting figures calculated by the Legislative Council. It wouldn’t kill you to learn how to read thoroughly, you know. Or, hell, maybe even think for yourself loser.
(saw other post by Peak) but the statement about Heath’s job losses still stands. And the liberal troll is still a loser.
Yes, the study claims that Heath’s initiative will result in 30,500 “fewer jobs” by 2017. I don’t agree with this number but that is what the study claims.
The number that does not appear anywhere in the study is 119,700, and even though PeakPols says they’ve “checked,” you’ve read the study and you come to the same conclusion and myself and every other competent person who has read the study. Which is that the 119,000 number is the result of a simple math error and wildly exaggerated.
Like I said, bring the study’s author out to say differently. I believe that PeakPols is full of shit. And rockymtnred, based on your comments you think so too: why, after correctly determining that they are wrong, are you willing to “retract” your questioning of their numbers?
Is that what all Republicans do?
I see how Peak calculated it and I didn’t take away the same impression. That said, what I “retracted” was my question as to the source RHINO quoted–after I saw the other Peak diary where the quote came from.
I’m not retracting my position that the numbers don’t seem to coincide w/ the data, nor my position that either 30,500 or 119,000 jobs lost is devastating to our state’s economy. But it’s troubling that you are “fine” with 30k, and your only concern is the disputed 119k number.
Of course raising taxes kills jobs. It’s only the thick-headed leftists who don’t believe it.
they prefer killing jobs in the private sector