You don't have to be a rocket scientist to reckon' that we here at the Peak recognize the electoral juggernaut Michele Bachmann has quickly become. We see a path to the nomination for her as easy as we breathe 5280 air. But…
…Conservatives leery of journalistic spin want honest facts, and a Fox News story touting Michele Bachmann's surge ran afoul of this "no spin" expectation.
The story touts Bachmann's rapid ascent from 3 percent to 11 percent in the latest Suffolk University New Hampshire primary poll, implying (no, strongly implying) that Bachmann is a threat to Mitt Romney…until a few paragraphs in where we learn that Bachmann is 25 points behind the Mitt-ster.
"While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney lead the pack with 36 percent of those polled, Bachmann's support climbed 8 points since May, to 11 percent in the most recent poll. The rest of the candidates remained in single digits."
We don't think Mitt has the nomination locked up…not by a long shot. But we also believe he is the clear front runner, followed by Bachmann, who in turn is followed by everyone else.
NH is never going to be Bachmann's best shot to catch fire in the primary season. It's known for its moderate leanings, and with no Democrat primary, the independents who are allowed to vote in either primary will only have one option this cycle, thus pulling the primary electorate further to the middle.
The polls to watch for Bachmann are Iowa, South Carolina and Florida. Mike Huckabee was unable to convert his Iowa upset into full charging primary momentum last time because he couldn't win South Carolina or Florida. When Bachmann starts leading those polls, you'll know the primary has been turned on its head and it's time for the Mitt-ster to start sweating Bachmann bullets.