UPDATE 2: All three Compass Colorado radio spots are up now.
UPDATE: The two Too Taxing for Colorado radio ads have been added. They are running in the West Slope, Denver metro, Larimer/Weld, and El Paso.
The proposed $3 Billion tax increase known as Prop 103 has one way and one way only to pass: conservative voter apathy. In a year where it's the only statewide ballot initiative, and outside Aurora the only races on the ticket are pretty much only school board races, no one expects an overwhelming turnout. Voters' TVs aren't being slammed with ads and their door bells aren't constantly ringing from canvassers, meaning many folks will simply let November 1 pass them by without noticing.
A number of groups who are opposed to raising taxes in a recession are now running radios ads on conservative talk radio stations and robodialing voters to make sure the citizens of Colorado know the risk of not weighing in on a job killing measure.
The first group formed to oppose Prop 103, Too Taxing For Colorado, is running radio ads and dropping robodials into households across Colorado.
There are two radio ads being run by Too Taxing.
Here is the first one:
And here is the second:
And a copy of one of the robodials we've heard about:
Also jumping into the voter education mix is Compass Colorado, which announced in a press release is running ads in the Grand Junction, Colorado Springs and Denver media markets.
The Compass Colorado ad uses a narrator and drops in a variety of public figures to make the point.
In Grand Junction, the ads are using the voice of freshman Rep. Ray Scott (R-Grand Junction). In Colorado Springs, the ads use House Majority Leader Amy Stephens (R-Monument). For Denver, Save Colorado Jobs' Victor Mitchell is the voice of reason in the spot.
Give the Denver version a listen:
Here is the Ray Scott version:
And Amy Stephens:
These radio ads come at a much needed time, as many major Republican counties are underperforming in a major way.
According to a Colorado Peak Politics analysis comparing Secretary of State numbers on total turnout by party registration in 2009 — the last off-year election — to total turnout as of Oct 26 by party registration, El Paso and Douglas are turning out at depressed levels.
Whereas Democrat turnout in Larimer County is already 101% of their 2009 total, Republican turnout in El Paso is only 49% of 2009 levels. DougCo Republicans see significant low turnout as well, with only 48% of the votes registered by Oct 26 compared to total DougCo GOP voters in 2009. Democrats in El Paso and Douglas are turning out at similar levels, meaning the entire counties are either slow in turning their numbers into the Secretary of State, or total voter turnout is severely depressed in the South Metro area.
Democrats in Boulder have only turned in ballots at 46% of their total 2009 turnout — a bad sign for Prop 103's lead cheerleader, Boulder Senator Rollie Heath.
The bright spots for the GOP are that they are turning out at a 9% higher rate in Pueblo compared to Democrats in terms of 2009 turnout, and a 11% higher rate than Democrats in Denver compared to 2009 turnout.
These numbers make clear that this election will be a turnout game. The question is will conservatives take heed of the robodials and radio ads and turn in their ballots. We'll find out next week.