With Rick Santorum surging in the latest Colorado poll, and leading in polls in the other two states voting today — Minnesota and Missouri — will the results from today's races unofficially end Newt Gingrich's campaign? Could Colorado force Gingrich out and bring Santorum in?
The former House Speaker's campaign in Colorado seems like a microcosm of his broader national effort, going from the graveyard to the top of the field, and back down again.
In August, Gingrich was in 5th place at 11% in the state, 2 points behind undecided/someone else at 13%.
By early December, Gingrich charged into the lead, spanking Romney by 19 points in Colorado. In the latest poll, released last night (here), Gingrich has fallen to third at 21%, with Santorum moving firmly into second at 27% and Romney leading with 37% support.
Should Santorum outpace Gingrich in all three states today it will would mean more bad headlines for a campaign that hasn't been able to reignite the fire it had burning beneath it as recently as the South Carolina primary, when Gingrich trounced his competition.
It would also give credence to Santorum's argument that it is he, and not Gingrich, who has claimed the mantle of the leading Romney alternative.
With no meaningful contests until Super Tuesday, Gingrich is going to have one helluva difficult time making his case that he is the conservative choice over Santorum.
To make his case, Gingrich needs wins, money and debates. Unless it's close in Colorado and Minnesota, Gingrich won't get even get credit for placing well. To make matters worse, he's not even on the ballot in Missouri today.
Without that credit and momentum he'll have a hard time raising money. His campaign is currently $600,000 in debt and will need millions more to pay for TV advertising in the expensive media markets that dominate Super Tuesday states like Cleveland and Cincinnati.
Most foreboding for Gingrich's uphill battle post-Colorado is the fact that there isn't another debate until February 22nd. As one of the most effective GOP primary debaters in modern history, Gingrich has reignited his campaign multiple times already this cycle on the strength of his debate performances.
Without another debate for two weeks, Gingrich will have little to latch onto for life support.
While Gingrich is most certainly not going to drop out after today, Colorado could go a long way in unofficially ending his candidacy.
So much for The Denver Post which was eager to say the Colorado caucus wouldn't matter.
We should end with a caveat, and a large one at that. Never, ever underestimate the ability for Newt Gingrich to come back from seemingly impossible odds. He's risen from the political graveyard more often than a Chicago voter.
But if things don't change dramatically, Newt's Hail Mary comebacks may well be over with.