Government Programs Help Win Elections; Both Parties Use Them (They Work)
It's not just Democrats who love government giveaways. Abe Lincoln's 1860 slogan was “Vote Yourself a Farm.” The Homestead Act resulted. And there's the Medicare Prescription Drug Act of 2003. Democrats opposed it; Republicans voted yes. The next year President Bush won 54% of seniors' votes (up 7% from the 2000 squeaker).
Barack Obama recently tweaked federal regulations to provide free birth control medication. Two-thirds of Americans agree this is an election year ploy.
With this giveaway, Obama is trying desperately to reconstruct his 2008 coalition. Key parts were:
- Women (he did 5% better than Kerry)
- African-Americans (up 7%)
- Hispanics (up 14%)
- Young voters (up 12%).
African-Americans are a lock. But most polls show Hispanics and younger voters lagging. Their catastrophic employment declines make Obama seem a failure. Only 5% of Americans think Obama's stimulus will fix the economy.
Women Swing Voters Crucial
To make up these losses, Obama looks to women. This week women in swing states like Colorado will get one million pieces of mail. Obama's campaign studied Colorado's 2010 election.
Two Public Policy Polling surveys of Colorado voters at the close of the 2010 election season showed swing voters were about 4% of all voters.
Almost all swing voters were women. This female-dominated swing testifies to Bennet's powerful message for women.
By party, Democrats provided half the swing. Other demographics showed less variance.
Democrats Lining Up Behind Obama – Messages That Work
Based on a battleground poll, Democrats – after Congressional spats last year – probably solidified their Democratic base.
This poll – which included two Colorado congressional districts – showed only 4% of Democrats would vote for a Republican congressional candidate. The Democrats' strongest line was “Republicans want to cut Social Security.” Republicans' strongest argument: “don't raise taxes in a recession.”
Count on those messages cross-pressuring 2012's voters … who want to protect seniors' Social Security and also oppose more taxes.
Colorado Democrats Flub Their Message
Thank goodness for Colorado's state legislative Democrats. They introduced, and gave 100% support to HB1287, that would have raised seniors' property taxes by $34.6 million. 100% of the Republicans voted to kill it. AP's Ivan Moreno reported the bill's sponsor called GOP opposition “games.” Senior Ann Mannering probably disagreed, saying, “Does the money go for heat, or food, or taxes? If it's going to taxes it isn't going to the others.”
That's a two-fer from the battleground poll: Democrats euchring seniors AND raising taxes. This Democrat bill will keep them from winning in the new TV show of 2012, Dancing with the Voters.
Obama himself bombs the first night for raising seniors' income taxes $4 Billion to fund Obamacare.
Just as Bennet thumped home the message that Ken Buck was anti-woman, Republican candidates should beat this drum all the way to November. Seniors can't trust Democrats.