The National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) independent expenditure arm has reserved over $18 million for advertising after Labor Day, according to Roll Call, with the Denver media market the third largest recipient of NRCC cash. In total $1.64 million has been put down for ads in the Denver market, which reaches into the three most competitive Congressional races in Colorado — Congressional districts 3, 6 and 7.
The Denver media market only reaches part of the 3rd Congressional District, where Congressman Scott Tipton is facing a challenge from State Rep. Sal Pace (D-Urination), meaning the bulk of the ad buys are likely targeted at the 6th and 7th Congressional districts. We won't know what races are getting what part of the ad buy until the spots themselves are created later on this year.
CD6 should technically be a competitive district based on voter registration alone after redistricting, but Democrat challenger Joe Miklosi has been a weak candidate, raising less money per quarter than any other targeted race in the country. His campaign thus far has been pathetic, taking weeks to capitalize on Coffman's Obama comments and facing a back pay complaint from the campaign's former finance director. Due to that, we're betting a good portion of the NRCC money will be spent on taking down Ed Perlmutter in CD7.
In CD7, Congressman Ed Perlmutter is facing a stiffer than expected challenge from former CoorsTek CEO Joe Coors Jr. Coors's campaign has already dropped $400,000 on two introductory ads. Perlmutter has yet to go up on TV. The Roll Call article says the CD7 race is "less competitive" at this point, most likely due to the conventional wisdom about Perlmutter's relative political safety after his 11-point trouncing of Ryan Frazier in 2010. But the district became much more Republican after redistricting. Additionally, Coors reached the highest level of the NRCC's candidate support program, Young Guns, three months before Frazier did, leading some observers (like us) to believe the CD7 race will be much more competitive this time around.
In April, the NRCC's Democrat counterpart, the DCCC, reserved $2.5 million in ad time in the Denver media market. The DCCC's deputy executive director told The Colorado Observer that some of the money is likely to go into defending Perlmutter's seat.
The NRCC's ad reservations continue a trend begun by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which reserved $25 million in ad time for the fall back in early April. Party committees have been reserving large blocks of ad time this early on to get better rates. With the expected competition of Super PACs and the presidential campaigns, the cost of advertising is likely to skyrocket in the fall, leading the parties to lock in better rates now.
This latest news only confirms what we already knew — this fall your TV (and YouTube, Facebook, Twitter) will be blanketed with political ads. It's shaping up to be the most expensive election in state and national history.