Obama won the summer TV wars through big spending (surprised?). His ads during the two weeks of national conventions gave him a temporary boost in the polls. Mainstream Media says it was the public’s reaction to the conventions and claims Americans aren’t buying Romney and like the Clinton/Obama team.
A closer look shows that MSM claims are doubtful (surprised?). This fall, given Obama’s diminished cash resources, Romney should command the airwaves. Is anything going for Obama to protect him from this onslaught?
Here are some of the claims. Read on to uncover their shaky basis.
Ad Fatigue
Scott Conroy offers a summary view of this allegation … that voters will see too much TV for the last weeks’ ads to matter. Colorado’s 2010 experience – with TV buys off the charts compared to any previous elections – certainly did not show voters paid no attention to the ads.
An analysis of Public Policy Polling surveys showed a crucial 4% of the voters (mostly women) thought Buck was anti-woman even while they planned to vote Republican elsewhere – including voting against Obama. This was the race that had almost $50 million in the candidates’ war chests and in SuperPAC type cash.
NBC reports our state has seen – already – about as many ads as were seen in the entire 2010 US Senate campaign in Colorado – $57 million worth. How much larger the ad blizzard must be to reach over-kill is a legitimate question. My wager? Time-shifting viewers will fast forward as often as usual; the rest of us will do the dinner dishes in small bursts, just like always.
Boots On the Ground
On grassroots, we already know the likely answer: Democrats’ grassroots spending has not boosted Democratic registrations as it did four years ago. In Larimer County, for example, Democrats are currently 14,500 behind the Republicans, and they are 7,500 behind their 2008 level of new Democrat registrations.
To be clear, Obama’s ground game will be better than Romney’s, but not the five to one advantage Obama had in Colorado in 2008. Their ground effort is crucial since Democrats are less likely voters than Republicans. Consider Colorado election turnout in 2008 and 2010.
Given incomplete historical data, two estimates are possible for 2008. One shows that active Republicans had turnout 1.1% higher than active Democrats. The other shows active Republicans out-performed Democrats by 3.56%.
In 2010, accurate voter numbers permit a hard report. In that year, 8.6% more Republicans voted than the Democrats’ level.
Making Romney Toxic?
Obama’s “wreck Romney” effort to turn Romney into teflon – where every negative sticks? Judge for yourself. Democracy Corps, a Democratic operation, had these results for Romney’s favorability in January and then this month:
- Favorable Unfavorable Knew
- Romney JAN | 30% | 41% | 90%
- Romney SEPT | 41% | 45% | 96%
- Romney Change | 11% | 4% | 6%
- Obama JAN | 49% | 41% | 99%
- Obama SEPT | 50% | 43% | 99%
- Obama Change | 1% | 2% | 0%
Romney’s favorability grew 11% while Obama’s grew 1%. Obama’s folks spent a ton of dough for that?
So, Why Isn’t Obama Behind?
Answer: His TV ads. When Obama out-buys Romney by two to one with TV he gets a break in the polls. But that won’t continue, given the money situation. When Obama’s money vanishes, so will his lead. As Barney Stinson says, “Waaaait for it.” MSM comeuppance.