Democrats coming through Colorado love to get the masses riled up about the gender gap – women don’t identify with Republicans, they say. Not surprisingly, so-called “facts” from the left aren’t accurate. The fact is that the real “gap” out there is among those who are married, and those who are not. A recent Gallup poll bore this out:
According to Gallup, “marriage is a significant predictor of presidential vote choice even after income, age, race, gender, education, religiosity, region, and having minor children are statistically controlled for.” While Gallup could not provide an explanation for the “marriage gap”, the accompanying explanation noted that “it is entirely possible that marriage and the ensuing transformation of a person’s life that accompanies such an action have a profound impact on a person’s political philosophy.”
In “blue” states, the married population is smaller than the non-married population (e.g., in California, the percentage of males who are married is 48.2% and females who are married comprise 45.7%). But, in a purple state like Colorado, the married population vs. the non-married population is far more equal. According to the American Community Survey, 51.7% of adult males are married and 50.8% of adult females are married in Colorado. Of course, in a reliably red state like Wyoming, the married population is much higher with 56.2% of men and 55.2% of women married.
According to the Wall Street Journal, of nine toss-up states (as described by the Cook Political Report), six have marriage rates over 50% – Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. Just three have marriage rates below 50% -Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Whether these statistics point to a Romney victory remains to be seen. That said, given past trends showing that married people are more likely to support the Republican candidate, the Obama camp probably wishes that 2/3 of the remaining tossup states weren’t habitated by more married people than singletons.