(Peak Note: We’re late to posting this. Written on Friday. Sorry, Dave!)
Fact #1: Colorado’s Republicans will have a decent advantage in voting strength this year – unlike in 2008. That’s unless the Democrats register about 7,000 new Democrats a day until registrations close on October 9. (Republicans are up 64,000 in active voters as of October 1.)
Fact #2: Gallup gives Colorado Republicans a slight advantage in party adherence over the Democrats. Gallup includes Independents who lean to one party or the other, and, with them, Republicans are up 0.5%. By contrast, Gallup gave Democrats a 10.6% advantage in ’08.
Fact #3: Colorado’s Independents are much closer to an even split in “lean” toward the parties than they were in 2008. Of registered “active” status Independents who lean to a party, Republicans earn 44% of the leaners (based on September 2012 data). This close “lean” may be reflected by the recent Denver Post poll that gave Romney a 2% advantage among Independents. In 2008, Republicans got only about 13% of Independent leaners. The October ’08 Denver Post poll gave Obama a 25% advantage among Independents. This shift in Independent thinking since 2008 explains why Obama isn’t ahead by a landslide in our state.
Fact #4: Colorado’s voters have nearly abandoned Election Day voting. Seventy percent of Coloradans will vote a mail-in ballot. In 2008, it was about 38%. Only 20% of Jeffco’s voters will go to the polls on Election Day. Just 10 counties are below 50% mail-in. In 2008, 38% voted mail-in. This shift diminishes the alleged Democratic ground game superiority, since most voters can’t be harassed on Election Day. It’s time for the legislature to save millions and shift us to Oregon’s 100% mail-in system. (And create nation-leading safeguards for this 21st Century style of voting.)