It’s bad news for Rep. Ed Perlmutter – both the Cook Political Report and Rothenberg have “upgraded” Colorado’s CD-07 race to “lean Democratic” instead of “likely Democratic”. Here is what the Rothenberg Political Report had to say:
“Republican Joe Coors has spent over $1 million of his own money on this contest to try to oust Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter after the suburban Denver district got slightly more favorable to the GOP. But it still went 58 percent for Obama and 50 percent for Kerry, and so it’s always been a difficult lift for Coors. Democrats never really saw this one in danger, but an upset no longer seems unimaginable.” (the Peak emphasis)
This Congressional seat is one of the most competitive in the country. In 2002, the first year Colorado’s Seventh Congressional District was granted to Colorado, Republican Bob Beauprez won the seat by just 121 votes. This election’s “Romney Bump” in Colorado is proving to foster a similar environment to 2002, and frankly this is the strongest Colorado’s top of the ticket has looked since Beauprez’s victory in 2002.
But, this isn’t Perlmutter’s only bad news. According to campaign insiders, Coors is currently tied with Perlmutter in various internal polling, and this is after the Big Money Left has come after Coors. Third party groups like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Majority PAC, Working America and the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees have spent tons of time, talent, and treasure against Coors. Only to tie the race.
So, why can’t Ed close the deal?
- CD-07 is Competitive: The district was one of the most competitive when it was drawn in 2002, but after the vast changes through redistricting, it became even more competitive. Approximately 40% of the district is new to Perlmutter, and perhaps that 40% isn’t confident it likes what it sees.
- The Perlmutter Campaign is Floundering: What exactly is Ed Perlmutter’s message? We don’t know because he doesn’t know. He’s still throwing every commercial up against the wall to see what sticks. Unfortunately for him, it’s just confusing voters (see: Revealing Politics video) and showing that the campaign is in disarray.
- Ed’s Out of Touch Voting Record: Perlmutter’s voting record is simply too liberal for this district. While the Denver Post editorial board “saved” Perlmutter by labeling his record moderate, a more in-depth (read: less biased) view shows that he’s just a rank-and-file Democrat.
- Ed’s Propensity to Politicize Tragedies: Following the Aurora Theater Shooting, Perlmutter could not stop using the horrific event to propel his own political views, such as Obamacare. See the Revealing Politics video below in which Perlmutter claims that victims of the massacre would not have access to healthcare without Obamacare (not true).
Translation: Perlmutter’s weaknesses as a candidate and Joe Coors’ strong name ID and disciplined campaign, plus the Republicans’ strong top of ticket are converging over Colroado’s Seventh Congressional District into what might be one of the biggest upsets in the 2012 election cycle.