Mike Coffman’s under the gun, winning by only 7,000 votes in 2012. Dems plan to take Congress with a politician’s best friend: CASH. Up $3+ million over Republicans the first two months of 2013, Obama’s sequester-immune flights for San Francisco-style liberal billionaires’ cash will add more.
A March national Quinnipiac poll tests whether Coffman may survive. It gave Democrats an 8% US House vote edge. Here’s what would happen IF Colorado’s voters matched those results (adjusted for our different partisan voter balance as of the 2012 election, with a July Q-poll added to test this estimation process). Scott Tipton’s added for comparison:
|July ’12 Estimate||Actual 2012||March 2013 Estimate|
|CD 3 – Tipton||Tipton||169,657||185,291||151,892|
|CD 6 – Coffman||Coffman||160,848||163,938||143,795|
Mike outperformed Romney by 1.3% last year, auguring similar outperformance in 2014 [Daily Kos presidential percentages, my calculations]. Tipton’s probably safe. Coffman faces a squeaker, on the wrong side by less than 1,000 votes. As of 4/4 ColoradoPols’ “Big Line: 2014” rates this race dead even.
Just as Republicans (including me) may have overestimated the “power” of 2010’s results in Colorado, ColoradoPols may be giving too much emphasis to 2012 results. Here’s a table of votes in three Democratic-heartland State House districts within CD 6.
|HD 40||HD 41||HD 42|
|’08 US Senate||34,538||32,111||20,633|
|10 US Senate||24,625||23,216||13,820|
|’12 State House||35,269||32,542||22,362|
|Growth ’08 – ’12||2%||1%||8%|
|2010 OFF BY||10,644||9,326||8,542|
Currently, these three are 35% of CD 6 Democrats but only 27% of the district’s active voters. Can – with no Obama on the ballot – Democrats produce the 2008/2012 turnouts? Especially when last time Obama wasn’t on the ticket, 28,000+ decided not to bother voting? HD 42’s 8% growth shows Obama ’12 really targeted minority voters; the district’s only 30% Anglo.
Given past off-year drop-off and Coffman’s extraordinary campaigning talent, bet on the Marine’s return to Congress.