Tea Leaves from Virginia

Virginia Republican Ken Cuccinelli lost his governor’s race this week. If that $50+ million contest had played out in Colorado, the Republican candidate would have won.

Colorado is more Republican than Virginia, so – adjusting to Colorado’s political realities – a losing performance in Virginia predicts victory in Colorado.

What the Cuccinelli race tells Colorado’s Republican candidates for governor is very simple:

Match Cuccinelli’s exit poll numbers among our Republicans, Democrats and Independents, and you will win in 2014.

Virginia‘s Democrats enjoyed a 5% turnout edge in this election. In Colorado, Republicans had a 1.75% turnout edge in 2012 (and a 5.9% edge in 2010). Apply Virginia exit poll percentages (by party) to Colorado’s last two elections’ actual turnout by party, and here’s what you get:

Colorado’s Republican candidates reasonably should better Cuccinelli’s performance, given all the criticism of Cooch’s campaign even before a single vote was counted. Republican donors should believe Hickenlooper will lose in 2014.

Final thoughts. Dems’ prowess isn’t guaranteed. ColoradoPols said the “Hick Hike” Amendment 66 campaign’s “’under the radar’ field campaign effort … completely failed.” Three times this year (with the two recalls) Coloradans have rejected the Hickenlooper/Democrat agressive, big-spending agenda. A small-government Republican should do much better in next year’s Colorado election … especially since Hickenlooper has never, ever had a tough campaign.

DATA AFTER THE JUMP

Turnout by party from Colorado Secretary of State. Virginia performance by party from 2013 exit poll. Colorado turnout and Virginia’s exit poll performance model a “Colorado” result for 2014. (Calculations are mine.) “3rd” means third party candidates’ vote totals. See table for base data and calculation results.