It’s starting to feel a lot like 2010 again. Yesterday’s CNN/ORC International poll is showing that the wind is at the back of Republicans in Congressional races heading into the 2014 mid-term elections. From the poll’s analysis:
“A CNN/ORC International survey released Thursday also indicates that President Barack Obama may be dragging down Democratic congressional candidates, and that the 2014 midterm elections are shaping up to be a low-turnout event, with only three in 10 registered voters extremely or very enthusiastic about voting next year.”
More tellingly, there has been a whopping 13-point swing in Republicans’ favor over the past two months. Two months ago, Democrats held a 50%-42% “advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates”. Last month, the poll showed that Democrats had blown their lead and that Republicans had moved into the lead with a 49%-47% advantage. This month, Republicans widened their lead with a 49%-44% advantage.
It also appears that enthusiasm is with Republicans:
“Democratic voters seem particularly unenthusiastic about voting, and that is likely to benefit the GOP. Thirty-six percent of Republicans say they’re extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. That number drops to 22% among Democrats.”
The Democrats biggest problem may be overcoming their own leadership, according to the poll’s article:
“Another GOP advantage is the President’s standing with the public: 55% of registered voters say that they are more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposes the President than one who supports him and four in 10 say they are likely to vote for a candidate who supports Obama.”
Of course, this is hardly surprising. The Obama administration, President Obama, and his allies in Colorado like Governor Hickenlooper and Sen. Mark Udall have been embroiled in controversy all year long. President Obama alone lists Obamacare, IRS targeting, Benghazi, the monitoring of reporters’ communications, Fast and Furious, and more.
Our prediction: President Obama won’t step foot in Colorado until after the 2014 election. But, it’s going to be tough to separate Obama from his signature organizing machine. You know, the one that Democrats rely upon to win elections….