“Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Udall… can hear the footsteps of three challengers.”
We figured we would start this post off with a bang. That statement above is hot off the presses from Quinnipiac University Poll. If you’re Udall right now, you’re sweating bullets.
Usually, as an incumbent with a large cash-on-hand advantage, and what many on the left believe is a weak field of opponents against you, you’d be leaning back in your chair puffing on a cigar as you contemplate whether to order a cocktail with one umbrella or two. Not if you’re Udall.
As the latest Q-Pac poll shows, Udall seems to have a ceiling around 45% and all of his opponents aren’t that far behind:
Udall vs. Buck: 45% to 42% (36%-44% among independents)
Udall vs. Stephens: 43% to 41% (35%-43% among independents)
Udall vs. Baumgardner (the ‘Stache!): 43%-41% (35%-42% among independents)
Udall vs. Hill: 44%-39% (37%-39% among independents)
So much for a weak field….
With a margin of error of 2.9%, that puts Amy Stephens and Randy Baumgardner in a statistical tie with Udall, and Buck just 0.1% from being there himself.
Udall’s favorability dropped to 42% from 44% in the last Quinnipiac poll done in November. He also sits at an even 42% to 42% of Coloradans who think he deserves to be reelected versus those who don’t. Remember PeakNation™, anytime you’re an incumbent and your numbers drop below 47% be afraid, because those undecideds could break hard against you come Election Day.
While we may be seeing more of Udall between now and then, one person we won’t be seeing for sure is President Obama (except in the ads Republicans will be running against Udall). Coloradans currently have a 37 to 59 percent approval to disapproval of Obama, while his namesake legislation, Obamacare, sits at a dismal 37-60 percent of people who support it versus those who oppose it. This is a 23-point difference, up from 16 points in November.
Needless to say, Coloradans likely will punish Udall for voting for it. Fifty two percent of Coloradans said they are less likely to support a candidate who supports Obamacare, while only 26% say it makes them more likely to support a candidate.
Finally, we know why Udall was doing all those tongue-twisting gymnastics when CNN asked him if we’d see him campaigning with Obama. In a more likely/less likely question of support if Obama campaigned for Udall, Coloradans were only 10 percent more likely, and 40 percent less likely to support Udall. Among independents, it was worse for Obama and Udall 5 – 45 percent, more likely to less likely.
So, we’re guessing that Udall would prefer we not play this video: