Two things stick out in the most recent PPP poll in Colorado:
- The Peak has already pointed out Udall’s weak Hispanic numbers. Udall’s weaknesses also show among Independents and those under 46.
- Women, Independents and those under 46 aren’t tuned in to this election yet. That’s based on their high “not sure” responses to questions about Republicans’ favorability ratings.
Knowing enough to rate Republicans ends up boosting support of both Republicans and Udall. Greater support for them comes from fewer “not sure” responses.
For John Hickenlooper, knowledgeable voters aren’t a blessing. They know Hickenlooper supports tax hikes and the Democrats’ liberal agenda. Knowing Hickenlooper’s liberal record depresses his support, especially among those over 45.
Poll questions about Obamacare suggest one issue may cut deep into Hickenlooper’s support. Link increased state government cost and higher taxes to the Obamacare Medicaid expansion. Given TABOR, more dollars spent on Medicaid must mean fewer dollars for education, our colleges and our roads. Coloradans will not like this. Exclude Obama-clinging Democrats and only 20% of other Coloradans approve of Obamacare.
The poll identifies one group who aren’t tied to one party. It’s those who didn’t admit they voted either for Obama OR Romney in 2012. These people are:
- 15% more likely to disapprove of Obama than approve of his job performance;
- 27% more likely to disapprove of Udall’s job performance than approve of it and
- 30% more likely to disapprove of Obamacare than approve of it.
This group – as they learn more about the candidates – appear ready to join the Republican side. We can reasonably wager that the bulk of truly independent voters share these levels of disapproval.
The Obamacare disaster creates a strong turnout message for conservatives. Democrats seem to think that boosting their turnout requires continued advances in liberalism. We should tell our voters about their extreme left (and harmful) notions so our side’s turnout grows even more. Turnout depends, after all, on two things: effort and messages like these. For the first time since 2002 we have winning messages.
Using both issues and effort, conservatives can put a double whammy on the Democrats.