PeakNation™, get ready for the Colorado Lefties to seize just upon the top line from the latest NBC News/ Marist poll, but should they dig at all beneath the surface, these numbers have to have them worried.
Essentially, the race is unchanged for the Senate seat, as Sen. Mark Udall held a seven point lead over Rep. Cory Gardner among registered voters in July (48-41), and holds an eight point advantage now (48-40) (48-42 among likely voters). What those numbers don’t say is how this most recent poll by Marist is weighted quite drastically different than the poll they released in July. In the July poll, the voter breakdown among registered voters was 32% Democrat, 37% Republican, 30% independent. However, now in September, Marist uses a voter breakdown of 32% Democrat, 32% Republican, 30% independent.
And, this is why Udall has to be worried: In this most recent poll, Marist took away five points from Republicans when they weighted it, and the topline numbers were essentially unchanged since July. Should Marist have used the same voter breakdown they used in July, the story would be how Gardner closed Udall’s lead.
For Gov. John Hickenlooper, the story is even more bizarre. The Marist poll in July had him sitting at 49-43 among registered voters against former Rep. Bob Beauprez. Since then he’s dropped to 43-36 among registered voters. And, more disturbing, he’s sitting at 43-39 among likely voters. Beauprez has closed the gap between him and Hickenlooper, even after Marist weighted five points less for Republicans.
So, to all you Colorado Lefties out there, please crow as loud as possible about this poll, because, trust us, the next few polls are going to be ugly for you guys.