A new poll out by Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research has Rep. Cory Gardner up 6 on Sen. Mark Udall 43%-37%. In the other big statewide race for Colorado, former Rep. Bob Beauprez and Gov. John Hickenlooper are tied at 42%-42%.
Interestingly enough, this newest poll pulls their random samples from voter files and not random cold calls. Some polling wonks argue this results in a more accurate poll than polls that rely on people who self-identify their party. The demographic breakdown of 35% Republican, 34% Democratic, 28% unaffiliated looks much more like a normal midterm electorate, but with Colorado’s new election laws, no one is quite sure what the final voter breakdown will look like.
If we were Udall or his flailing campaign, we may take comfort in knowing that all registered voters will receive a ballot in the mail, leading to a possible increase in those who otherwise wouldn’t vote (i.e. unaffiliated voters), but when we look past the topline we see that Gardner is beating Udall among unaffiliated voters 39%-24%. Even if Udall finds a way to increase the participation of unaffiliated voters this election cycle, they most likely won’t be turning out to vote for him.
Adding to the doom and gloom for Udall, Republicans enjoy a +20 advantage over Democrats of those who are either extremely interested or very interested in voting this November (a +17 among extremely interested voters alone). That’s the type of enthusiasm gap that usually spells doom for the lethargic party.
Udall’s “war on women” looks to have turned quite stale as women only give him a +5 advantage over Gardner, while at the same time they give Hickenlooper a +14 advantage over Beauprez. Wethinks the Senator did doth protest too much.
With less than a week before ballots go out, we’re betting Udall wished he could take some of his Steyer millions to trade positions with Gardner.