Colorado Lefties and Democrats can feel the Colorado Senate race slipping away from them. Poll after poll from source after source has Rep. Cory Gardner beating Sen. Mark Udall. It has gotten so bad for Udall and Colorado Democrats, they had to release some internal polls this weekend just to break up the monotony of “Gardner winning,” and “Gardner beating Udall.” Yet, their whining hasn’t gone unnoticed.
FiveThirtyEight, the new website from the polling, number-cruncher Nate Silver, wrote a new article that puts Colorado Democrats in their place, not so delicately titled: “Colorado Polling Is Probably Right. Udall Is Losing.” In the article, FiveThirtyEight’s senior political writer, Harry Enten, deconstructs what everyone already knows (just the Left is afraid to admit it): Udall is losing. As he writes:
Gardner in recent polls has been so important in our Senate forecast, which currently gives Republicans a 66 percent of securing a majority. Gardner’s chance of winning has risen to 80 percent. He has led in all but one of 15 nonpartisan sponsored surveys released since mid-September, and by an average of 3.4 percentage points.
…Yet we’re beginning to hear arguments not to trust the polls in Colorado.
…Gardner’s lead is nearing a point at which he could afford a polling error of that magnitude. He’s up by 2.4 percentage points in our latest projection. Udall would need every bit of those past errors to pull out the victory.
…Pollsters haven’t had problems with vote-by-mail states.
…The polls and the fundamentals tell the same basic story: An unpopular incumbent is losing in a purple state against a decent candidate in a slightly Republican-leaning year. That’s a pretty believable story. [the Peak’s emphasis]
Basically, if Colorado Lefties have an argument to why the polls say Udall is losing, Enten has a more convincing answer. But, frankly, Enten should’ve never had to go into all that detail. The simplest answer for why Udall is losing in every poll would be that Udall is losing.
Someone needs to go all Good Will Hunting Robin William’s on them, and hug them while whispering, “It’s not your fault Udall is losing,” so they can finally grasp the truth that is staring them in the face. Then again, no one on #copolitics has ever mistaken a Colorado Leftie for being a genius. Also, Udall’s race is, like, totally their fault.