FiveThirtyEight put out their final report on the gubernatorial races this morning and no race, save one, is closer than the contest between former Rep. Bob Beauprez and Gov. John Hickenlooper. FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Hick a 0.6 point advantage and a 58% chance to win. Other than Maine, no gubernatorial race is closer to being a toss-up. As Harry Enten writes about Colorado’s Governor race:
After the 2012 mass shooting in Aurora, Hickenlooper, along with a Democratic legislature, enacted tough gun-control laws. Voters didn’t like that. They turned out two Democratic state senators in a recall in 2013, and voters still disapprove of Hickenlooper’s handling of gun control, according to Quinnipiac.
Likewise, Coloradans are upset with Hickenlooper over his stance on the death penalty. Voters in the state are overwhelmingly in favor of the death penalty, but Hickenlooper turned against it while in office. [the Peak’s emphasis]
Most likely, the race is even closer than that 58%, as yesterday’s Quinnipiac CYA poll was included in the FiveThirtyEight metrics:
In Colorado, Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper trailed Republican Bob Beauprez 45 percent to 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. But Quinnipiac has had a 2 percentage point pro-Republican house effect in 2014, so the model views this poll more as a tie.
As we noted yesterday, Quinnipiac played fast and loose with that poll, weighting it 55/45, female to male. As of this morning it was still 52/48, with no chance of getting anywhere close to that 55/45 split. Which means, HickenBob might just be the closest gubernatorial race in the country.
So, PeakNation™, get out and vote if you haven’t, drop off your ballot at a ballot dropbox because all signs point to Beaupez and Hick coming down to the wire.