Your vote countsAs we predicted, Democrats will head into election day with fewer ballots returned than Republicans. In spite of a strong early lead, the Democrat share of total ballots returned declined every single day over the past two weeks, as the Republican voter turnout effort continued to perform.

Today begins with Republicans holding a 7,360 lead in returned ballots, according to the Secretary of State. 1,852,029 ballots have been received, with Republicans accounting for 35.2% of returned ballots and Democrats with 34.8%. Thus far, ballots for 56.6% of active registered voters have been received.

In 2012, there were 2,569,516 presidential votes cast, so we expect more than 500,000 additional ballots still to come (at least). This morning’s ballot chase break down is below:

Republican ballots returned: 652,380
Democrat ballots returned: 645,020
Unaffiliated ballots returned: 527,796
Other party ballots returned: 26,923

Some key counties are below. Totals may not equal because third party ballots are excluded.


Democrat: 49,173
Republican: 37,232
Unaffiliated: 37,999
Total: 126,204


Democrat: 72,654
Republican: 64,714
Unaffiliated: 53,990
Total: 193,931


Democrat: 111,032
Republican: 31,065
Unaffiliated: 53,558
Total: 198,565


Democrat: 30,134
Republican: 64,632
Unaffiliated: 36,429
Total: 132,931

El Paso

Democrat: 52,765
Republican: 106,084
Unaffiliated: 62,775
Total: 225,634


Democrat: 75,967
Republican: 74,969
Unaffiliated: 69,559
Total: 23,549


Democrat: 41,113
Republican: 44,840
Unaffiliated: 40,570
Total: 128,485


Democrat: 20,233
Republican: 34,514
Unaffiliated: 22,704
Total: 78,566