As we predicted, Democrats will head into election day with fewer ballots returned than Republicans. In spite of a strong early lead, the Democrat share of total ballots returned declined every single day over the past two weeks, as the Republican voter turnout effort continued to perform.
Today begins with Republicans holding a 7,360 lead in returned ballots, according to the Secretary of State. 1,852,029 ballots have been received, with Republicans accounting for 35.2% of returned ballots and Democrats with 34.8%. Thus far, ballots for 56.6% of active registered voters have been received.
In 2012, there were 2,569,516 presidential votes cast, so we expect more than 500,000 additional ballots still to come (at least). This morning’s ballot chase break down is below:
Republican ballots returned: 652,380
Democrat ballots returned: 645,020
Unaffiliated ballots returned: 527,796
Other party ballots returned: 26,923
Some key counties are below. Totals may not equal because third party ballots are excluded.