Last night, we saw a post by former Colorado Democratic Party chair (turned Independent) Floyd Ciruli claiming that there was a mystery poll out there showing Cary Kennedy in the lead with 35% in the Democratic gubernatorial primary with Congressman Jared Polis trailing slightly at 30%.
This morning, we woke up to a poll by Magellan (that actually included cross-tabs and other legit information) showing Polis solidly in the lead with Kennedy trailing significantly.
So, which poll is right? Well, we can tell you what we don’t know and that is basically anything about the rumored poll discussed by Ciruli. We don’t know who was surveyed, how likely they are to vote, when they were surveyed, who conducted the survey, nothing.
On the other hand, the Magellan survey was pretty transparent. The results of the Magellan survey have Polis at 31%, Kennedy at 18%, Johnston at 9%, and Lynne at 3%. That leaves 39% undecided. Oh hey, Johnston finally broke 5%. Congrats guy.
One item that really stood out was that 53% of respondents had never heard of Donna Lynne. She’s Colorado’s Lieutenant Governor, for crying out loud. Before she put some TV up, she was at 71% who had never heard of her. In fact, hers are highest across the board. Good grief.
It’s also worth noting that Kennedy’s negatives are still pretty low among her base despite recent critique from Gov. John Hickenlooper for her outside money’s negative ads. There’s a good reason for that. The poll was taken on May 30-31, just about the time that her ads started. It would be interesting to see where her negatives are today.
The moral of the story? Don’t trust polls that won’t release demographics or cross tabs.