How good is the environment right now for Colorado Republicans?
Let’s just say if current trends continue, Megan Schrader might need to update her desktop.
The generic Congressional ballot is nearly dead even nationally, and Biden’s job approval ratings have tanked so much the president is sitting at minus 4 in Colorado, a state he won by double digits.
NEW POLL: The number of voters who disapprove of @JoeBiden exceeds the number of voters who approve of him in all but 13 states. Colorado joins the majority of states who disapprove of the president. #copolitics pic.twitter.com/LpP2LaOk5V
— Kristi Burton Brown (@ColoradoKbb) September 1, 2021
Craig Hughes, a consultant who has worked with U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet and other prominent Democrats, is already raising concerns.
In the Colorado Sun, Hughes compared 2022 to the 2010 and 2014 midterms, both years that were particularly bad for Democrats.
The Unaffiliated: What do you think is the biggest threat to Colorado Democrats next year?
Craig Hughes: I think the national mood is probably our biggest threat. I think we saw significant snapbacks when Democratic presidents were in office in 2010, 2014. And the question becomes: How does 2022 play out? A lot of those things are out of Colorado Democrats’ control but will greatly influence the landscape here.
If 2022 is anything like 2010 or 2014, that would be a big problem for Bennet.
While Bennet prevailed narrowly over Ken Buck in 2010, then-President Obama’s popularity wasn’t nearly the drag on Democrats nationally that Biden will be this time around, and we all know how 2014 went for former U.S. Sen. Mark Udall.
The problems facing Bennet and other Colorado Democrats are largely of their own making.
Nationally, Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan is pummeling the left, while the threat of unchecked inflation has Democrats like U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin rethinking injecting another $3.5 trillion into an economy that could easily overheat.
Colorado Dems are also panicking about proposed congressional maps from the Independent Redistricting Commission.
Hughes and Rick Ridder, another longtime Colorado Democrat strategist, told the Associated Press the proposed changes from the commission are bound to hurt Democrats.
“This looks like a 4-3-1 map in a state that went for Biden by 13.5,” said Craig Hughes, a veteran Colorado Democratic strategist. “That’s not a good result for Democrats.” […]
“There should be concern within the Democratic Party that we may have been too quick to seek reform without really looking at the long-term implications,” said Rick Ridder, a Democratic strategist in Denver.
There’s some hypocrisy here.
Democrats who criticize the commission are blatantly admitting they just wish they kept control of the process so they could gerrymander the new maps themselves.
In case anyone forgot, this is the same party that spent the better part of the summer pushing a bill to federalize elections and ban gerrymandering.
Not exactly a great look, but it just shows there is a broad disconnect between what Democrats say in Congress and how they view independent redistricting bodies when the process could cost them seats.
Between the national mood and redistricting, the political environment in Colorado is looking very good for Republicans. That means we could see more candidates jumping into races that may have looked unattainable just a year ago.
Assuming local activists on the right don’t quash a potential red wave by cancelling their primaries, 2022 could be a Red Wave that conservatives have been yearning for.