The billion dollar tax hike campaign doesn’t seem to have any trouble dialing for dollars, but it does seem to be running into some resistance with actual voters.
A new Colorado poll by Magellan Strategies on Amendment 66 shows the billion dollar ballot initiative losing significantly, 52-38, when voters are given the details of the proposal. It tracks along the line of results found by Magellan in late April, when a statewide poll found voters opposed to a two-tiered tax hike 56-35.
Amendment 66 would raise taxes for income under $75,000 by 8% and by 27% on income over $75,000.
Both Magellan polls purposely had samples that skewed more Democratic than normal odd-numbered year election turnout in an effort to counteract previous issues with overly optimistic Republican polls.
The new Magellan poll assumed a 5-point Republican turnout advantage in 2013, despite the fact that Republicans had turnout advantages of 7.8% and 8.5% in 2011 and 2009, respectively. (If only they could replicate that in Presidential years)
In 2011, the $500 million dollar tax increase Prop 103 lost decisively, 63-37.
Those poll results stand in stark contrast to the nearly $10 million that Amendment 66 proponents have said they plan on raising for their campaign. While that kind of money can certainly be effective in politics, as long as there is a solid paid-media effort by opponents, we just don’t see how Coloradans shift their view on a tax increase 180 degrees in the next three weeks before ballots drop.
If those two polls weren’t enough to dash the hopes of the tax hikers, then their spokesman’s lame attempts at spin surely should.
Recently, the Rothenberg Political Report published an article entitled “6 Things Losing Candidates Say.” Number two was “the only poll that matters is on Election Day.”
Here’s how tax hike flack and former “reporter” Curtis Hubbard reacted to the results of both Magellan polls when they were released.
“The only poll that matters is Election Day,” said Curtis Hubbard, spokesman for Colorado Commits to Kids.
“The only results that matter will be delivered after voting centers close and ballots are counted on Nov. 5,” said Vote Yes on 66 campaign spokesman Curtis Hubbard.
But we hope that doesn’t stop them from throwing $10 million down the drain anyway.