The Denver Post released a Colorado poll confirming what everyone other than Democrat polling firms already knew — the race for President in Colorado is tied.
Reports John Ingold and Kurtis Lee:
After months of campaigning, multiple visits and millions spent on advertising, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are dead even in Colorado, according to a new Denver Post poll.
The poll results — first announced Friday on the noon broadcast of DPTV— show Obama ahead of Romney by a single, statistically insignificant percentage point, 47 to 46 percent. When former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who is running as the Libertarian nominee for president, is factored in, Obama’s single-percentage-point lead remains, 45 percent to 44 percent. Johnson registers at 3 percent of the vote.
We have only one slight problem with the poll — as Alan Philp noted on Twitter, the poll’s sample assumes a higher turnout of Democrats than Republicans.
The sample is 34% D / 34% R / 30% Unaffiliated. As there were almost 100,000 more registered active Republican voters than Democrats as of September 1, an equal turnout from Democrats would assume they are actually turning out at higher rates than Republicans.
We don’t see that happening. Just look at Obama’s recent visit to CSU: In 2008, he attracted a crowd of 45,000. This year: 13,000. Does that seem like it portends a 2008-like turnout among Democrats?
If the poll were to have a more realistic likely voter sample, Romney would actually be in the lead, which we know would probably break Denver Post Publisher and Obama fan boy Dean Singleton’s heart.