The latest Denver Post poll of Colorado showing Romney taking the lead 48%-47% has many reasons to scare the strategists at Obama HQ back in Chicago. The host state to Obama’s historically embarrassing first debate loss not only has shifted away from the President, but the Post‘s topline results likely mask a much larger Romney lead than the single point that hit headlines.
The Denver Post has set an admirable bar by posting the full crosstabs and question phrasing on their Colorado polls from SurveyUSA. That lets readers know what kind of biases are cooked into the results they release.
From the way questions are asked to whom they are asked of, this data affects the horserace numbers in the headlines. The numbers below — what different ethnic groups, genders, income levels, party members, etc think about candidates and issues — also give a much better sense of the direction of a race than do the top-line candidate A vs. candidate B figures.
In the case of The Denver Post poll released last Friday, and scooped by the Peak on Thursday, there are a number of issues that lead us to believe Governor Mitt Romney’s lead in Colorado is actually more than the one-point advantage the poll found. Here are 4 reasons Barack Obama has more to fear from the latest Post poll:
1. Oversampling of Democrats and still behind: First and foremost is the oversampling of Democrats. The Post poll has a sample of 37D/34R/28U. That’s actually three points more Dems than the Post‘s September poll, which was 34D/34R/30U, for seemingly no good reason.
Even in 2008 slightly more Republicans turned out than Democrats. In 2010, it was 31.5D/36.5R/32U according to Secretary of State records. A sample reflective of the one likely to turn out on November 6 would probably give Romney another 2-3 points of a lead.
2. Hispanic voters moving towards Romney. As Peak contributor Dave Diepenbrock pointed out earlier today, the poll likely also oversamples Hispanic voters, but what’s really interesting to us is they’re moving quickly to Romney. The former Massachusetts Governor has increased his Hispanic support since the September Post poll from 38% to 43%. Obama’s Hispanic support dropped from 57% to 52%. Guess those Romney visits to Pueblo were worth it after all.
3. “Romney Loves Rapists” Ads Not Working. For the last couple of months the underlying message of millions of dollars of liberal group and Obama TV ads on Colorado screens has been essentially “Pay attention women, Romney hates rape victims.” The Obama campaign even told women “vote like your lady parts depend on it.”
In both the September Post poll and the most recent one, Obama only leads with women by 6 points. Romney leads with men by 8 points.
By all means, liberals, please keep running those ads. They’re working wonderfully.
4. Generation 53% Underemployment Wants Change. In a major challenge to the conventional wisdom about the youth vote, Mitt Romney actually leads Obama 45%-40% among voters 18-34. That might have something to do with the fact that 53% of recent college graduates were jobless or underemployed in 2011, according to the Associated Press.
In the September Post poll, Romney and Obama were tied among the 18-34 set. As Obama has spent enough time on Colorado campuses this year to qualify for tenure, that’s really got to hurt. Do you know how much free stuff Obama has already promised college kids. What else can he do to earn their vote?