The Secretary of State has released the latest ballot returns as of this morning, October 30. Republicans are holding onto a three-point lead, marking a five point shift from Oct. 30, 2008.

The figures from the SOS:

R – 370,982 (38.4%)

D – 343,721 (35.6%)

U – 241,294 (25.0%)

According to election expert, Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University, on Oct. 30, 2008 the ballot returns in Colorado were:

R – 35.9% D – 37.7% U – 26.4%

That means Republicans have seen a five-point shift in early voting since last cycle when Obama took Colorado by nine points.

As a reminder, according to the most recent Colorado poll by bipartisan firm Purple Strategies, Romney is winning Unaffiliated/Independent voters who have voted already 48-39. Romney and Obama were tied overall among all Indies.

In 2008 CNN exit polls, Obama took Indies by 10 points, and won 13% of Republican votes, compared to McCain who only won 7% of Democrat votes. The Purple Poll has Romney taking Republicans 92-6, while Obama wins Democrats 90-8.

UPDATE: Republicans are leading Democrats in ballot returns in the three most major swing counties in Colorado. In Arapahoe they are leading by 2,723, by 4,029 in Larimer and 5,245 in Jefferson.


Check out the Oct. 30 ballot return report county-by-county breakdown here.

Previous ballot return figures for Oct. 29, Oct. 26, Oct. 25, Oct. 24 and Oct. 23.