Former Colorado Democratic Party Chairman and pollster Floyd Ciruli picks up on the big question in Colorado politics on his blog today — is Governor Hickenlooper in trouble?
Noting the shocking transition Hickenlooper’s reputation has undergone — from moderate to “leader of a very socially liberal, anti-business state government” — Ciruli points out how much Hick has lost control of his own image:
Hickenlooper tried to frame the session as simply addressing major needs in a moderate fashion with a minimalist state-of-state address advocating gun registration and civil unions. But, he lost control of the messaging as national interest in the issues overwhelmed local positioning and, for example, made Colorado a gun control success story for embattle [sic] advocates…
The sheer volume of Democratic proposals on guns, gays, drugs, taxes, death penalty, spending and regulation took over and altered Hickenlooper’s moderate image to that of a leader of very socially liberal, anti-business state government. As of today, gun control, the legislature’s signature issue, is not very popular in Colorado, with only 49 percent of the public supporting either stricter laws in general or an assault weapons ban specifically.
The effect of this strong shift to the left on Hick’s part — something also noted in The New Yorker profile of Hick today — is to submerge his approval rating under water with independents.
As the chart created by Ciruli highlights (see below), Hick’s approval among indies has gone from a positive 59-21 approve/disapprove last November to an upside down 40-48 in the April Public Policy Polling statewide survey.
Credit: Ciruli Associates
All the Democrat hyperventilating about the GOP not having a candidate is spin. The GOP will have a candidate, and whoever it is, he or she will face a challenge in John Hickenlooper that all of the sudden doesn’t seem so daunting.
UPDATE: Compare Floyd Ciruli’s reasoned analysis and the shocking turnaround with Hickenlooper’s approval among independents to Colorado Pols insistence that “there’s absolutely nothing here to indicate Hickenlooper will be seriously threatened in 2014.” What’s more believable — that Hick has a smooth ride to re-election or that the waters surrounding his candidacy suddenly got a lot choppier?
The big question is, can the Colorado GOP pull it's head out of its @ss? Can it find its own @ss with both hands?
Can it come up with someone who is not a lying huckster or a plagiarist?
@Scott Montgomery
Not even close, sir:
Democratic John Hickenlooper 912,005 51.01% -5.97%
Constitution Tom Tancredo 651,232 36.43% +35.80%
Republican Dan Maes 199,034 11.13% -29.03%
And let's not forget that even with the implosion on the GOP side, the only reason Hickenlooper won by a large margin is because the GOP vote was split. If it wasn't, Hickenlooper would have won in a squeaker. And that's with his moderate image, and a bunch of Republicans voting for him.
I have to admit, I am surprised his approval rating went up as much as it did among Democrats. I know a number of them that are quite unhappy with Hick.
If you pull up the voting registration records (published every month with the Secretary of State), Republicans have 34% of the registered voters in Colorado, Dems 33% and Independents 32%.
If these approval ratings are correct, Hick has his work cut out for him.
Dump the loser.
Exactly! The independent challenger was closer than the R and the stupid repub wouldn't back out knowing it was a lost cause.
Marjorie Haun You mean Chickenpooper
It's Monday and Hickenlooper still sucks.
Obomo idiot mr Chickenhopper.
Remember, Hickenlooper didn't defeat the Republican candidate, the opposition pretty much imploded. Hick has yet to face a real opponent in a general election.