A recent article in Politico has called Colorado’s Sixth Congressional race between current Republican U.S. Representative Mike Coffman and Democrat Andrew Romanoff the toughest in the state for 2014 and, possibly, the toughest in the nation for the off-year election.  The article cites the Rothenberg Political Report which calls the district a “pure toss up”.

Politico cites Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Brandon Lorenz as saying, “Andrew is one of the top fundraising challengers in the country on either side of the aisle.  He is going to absolutely have the money he needs to win this race.”

That said, Romanoff’s recent entry into the race should have meant that he was plucking “low-hanging” fundraising dollars and yet Coffman still out-raised Romanoff last reporting cycle.  Coffman has fundraising powerhouse Starboard behind him, which the article failed to mention.

While the article was a little light on Republican opinions, it did quote former U.S. Representative Tom Tancredo, who represented the district prior to Coffman.  He called the race a “really, really big money battle”.

Political commentator Eric Sondermann also offered his insight:

“I suspect the district will largely follow the national trend line.  If Romanoff either has a neutral breeze or a slight breeze at his back, he can win that seat. My question is: Can he win that seat if there’s a head wind? And I’m not sure that he can.”

And, that’s true, but Coffman won in 2012 even as Obama took 53% of the vote in CD6. He also won in the bloodbath of 2006 in a statewide race, proving that he’s not your average endangered Republican. A former combat veteran, Coffman knows how to survive a firefight. Romanoff might need more than a neutral or slight breeze to take CD6.