David Jolly, Florida’s newest Congressman

We often don’t bother with other states, because frankly we live in Colorado, so who gives a damn about the rest.  But, let’s take a quick trip to Florida where Republican David Jolly shouldn’t have won in Florida’s 13th Congressional District special election last night.

The Congressional district has gone for Obama in the past two elections.  The Democratic candidate won the district in her failed gubernatorial bid. The Democratic candidate had at one point raised $1.43 million dollars compared to the Republican candidate who had raised around only $100k, oh, and let’s not forget, the Republican candidate was also a D.C. lobbyist.  Simply put, Democrats should have won.

As Stuart Rothenberg, a well-respected campaign handicapper, wrote for Roll Call back in January:

It’s rare in politics that anything other than a presidential contest is viewed as a “must win” — but the special election in Florida’s 13th District falls into that category for Democrats.

A loss in the competitive March 11 contest would almost certainly be regarded by dispassionate observers as a sign that President Barack Obama could constitute an albatross around the neck of his party’s nominees in November.

…the president’s weak poll numbers nationally and the problems associated with the launch of the health care law could undermine [Democratic Candidate Alex] Sink’s obvious advantages

…a Republican victory in March would likely say something about the national political environment and the inclination of district voters to send a message of dissatisfaction about the president. And that possibility should worry the White House.  [the Peak emphasis]

Remember PeakNation™, this was a well-regarded Democratic Candidate who has not spent the past 16 years in Washington, voting with Obama 99% of the time, and proudly casting the deciding vote that stripped 335,000 Coloradans of their health care insurance that they liked (after distinctly promising they could keep them).  If she can lose, should someone with so much more baggage like Udall be worried?  Yes, the answer is very much Yes.

But, this goes beyond Udall.  Remember that political analyst Eric Sondermann predicted that CD6 would follow national trend lines and cast doubt about whether Romanoff could win if he faced head winds.  With Democrats facing such strong headwinds, does Democrat U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter face a tougher race against Republican Don Ytterberg than he once thought, too?