“How many debates did my campaign sign me up for?”

It’s been an odd day so far for polls and prognosticators when it comes to Colorado.  A new NBC/Marist poll has Sen. Mark Udall with his biggest lead in the Senate race since Rep. Cory Gardner got in the race.  Yet, at the same time, one of the big national prognosticators, Stu Rothenberg, has downgraded Udall in the race from “likely Dem” to “toss-up/tilt Dem.”  Rothenberg certainly seems nonplussed with the Marist poll and most other political observers are agreeing with him.  Harry Enten, the senior political writer at FiveThirtyEight, tweeted this out:

Enten goes on to point out why this poll feels so out of step (and why Democrats are rallying so hard around it): it doesn’t fit the feeling of the race on the ground.


Question: does an incumbent who is up by seven have one of the most bizarre weeks where he goes out of his way to avoid his own fundraiser that the sitting President of the United States shows up for?  Does an incumbent who is up by seven do everything in his power to make the race about wedge issues when the American economy actually contracted the first quarter of an election year?

The Colorado Left (and some national Lefties as well) are pushing this poll hard because it is the first possible good news Udall has had in a long time.  But, truth be told, they are really clinging so hard to it because it might be their last chance to change the narrative of the race before Udall is completely swept away.

Much has been made about Marist using all registered voters versus just likely voters (a huge caveat especially in a non-Presidential year), and Marist assuming a 16% Hispanic electorate (even in the 2012 Presidential year, Colorado Hispanics made up only 14% of Colorado’s electorate), but even without those, the basic facts of this race haven’t changed.  Udall has a deeply flawed, far left, six-year record in the Senate that has him tripping over himself left and right running from it.  His close relationship with President Obama, once an asset when Obama was popular, has become a mill stone around his neck as Obama’s popularity in Colorado continues to plunge.  His opponent, Gardner, is well-liked and highly thought of— Rothenberg goes even as far to say Gardner’s “energy and sunny disposition will help make him broadly appealing.”

The time is ticking down on Udall.  If he doesn’t put this race away by the time Labor Day rolls around, if he doesn’t put this race away by the first time him and Gardner step on a stage across from each other, he will lose.  His record is too far left for a state like Colorado, and he has demonstrated he has an amazing ability to fumble even the simplest of questions.  Gardner with his sunny disposition will put him to the sword for it, and all while doing it with a smile.

Mark it down PeakNation™, this outlier poll was just the high water mark of Udall’s reelection campaign, and he still couldn’t break 50%.